IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v127y2015icp54-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Semiparametric estimation of default probability: Evidence from the Prosper online credit market

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Xiaofeng
  • Shang, Ying
  • Su, Zhi

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of a person’s past financial characteristics on his likelihood to default in ex-post loan performance using both Probit and a semiparametric single-index estimator proposed by Klein and Spady (1993). The data used in the paper are a sample of individual loans generated on Prosper, a large US online lending market. The out of sample predictions and the model specification test suggest a misspecification of the Probit model due to the violation of the normality assumption. Estimation results suggest that a borrower’s past financial credit score is a reasonably good indicator of one’s loan performance. In general, the higher one’s credit score ranking, the lower the probability that one would default. One exceptional finding is that a borrower with score ranking B is less likely to default than a borrower with score ranking A. Such a finding suggests that individuals who are in the middle range of credit grades may be more financially credit-dependent than those with higher rankings. As a result, they are more willing to keep their loans in good standings.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiaofeng & Shang, Ying & Su, Zhi, 2015. "Semiparametric estimation of default probability: Evidence from the Prosper online credit market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 54-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:127:y:2015:i:c:p:54-57
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.11.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176514004601
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.11.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643.
    2. David B. Gross, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 319-347, March.
    3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    4. Fay, S. & Hurst, E. & White, M.J., 1998. "The Bankruptcy Decision: Does Stigma Matter?," Papers 98-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    5. Hsiao, Cheng & Li, Qi & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2007. "A consistent model specification test with mixed discrete and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 802-826, October.
    6. White, M.J., 1998. "Why Don't More Households File for Bankruptcy?," Papers 98-03, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    7. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    8. Klein, Roger W & Spady, Richard H, 1993. "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 387-421, March.
    9. Li, Dong & Li, Qi, 2010. "Nonparametric/semiparametric estimation and testing of econometric models with data dependent smoothing parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 179-190, July.
    10. White, Michelle J, 1998. "Why Don't More Households File for Bankruptcy?," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 205-231, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Henry Penikas, 2023. "IRB Asset and Default Correlation: Rationale for the Macroprudential Mark-Ups to the IRB Risk-Weights," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Dmitriy Borzykh & Henry Penikas, 2021. "IRB PD model accuracy validation in the presence of default correlation: a twin confidence interval approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 282-300, December.
    3. Henry Penikas, 2020. "IRB Asset and Default Correlation: Rationale for the Macroprudential Add-ons to the Risk-Weights," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps56, Bank of Russia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kudlyak, Marianna & Mondragon, John, 2014. "Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data," IZA Discussion Papers 7910, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Dennis Kristensen, 2009. "Semiparametric Modelling and Estimation: A Selective Overview," CREATES Research Papers 2009-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Henderson, Daniel J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2013. "Who benefits from financial development? New methods, new evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 47-67.
    4. Daniel J. Henderson, 2009. "A Non‐parametric Examination of Capital–Skill Complementarity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 519-538, August.
    5. Wenli Li & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2002. "The macroeconomics of U.S. consumer bankruptcy choice : chapter 7 or chapter 13?," Working Paper 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Michelle J. White, 2008. "Bankruptcy: Past Puzzles, Recent Reforms, and the Mortgage Crisis," NBER Working Papers 14549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Balloch, Adnan & Engels, Christian & Philip, Dennis, 2022. "When It Rains It Drains: Psychological Distress and Household Net Worth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Song Han & Geng Li, 2011. "Household Borrowing after Personal Bankruptcy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 491-517, March.
    9. Simar, Leopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2011. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth? The Case of Discrete Variables in Nonparametric Regressions," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011042, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    10. Wenli Li & Ishani Tewari & Michelle J. White, 2019. "Using Bankruptcy to Reduce Foreclosures: Does Strip-Down of Mortgages Affect the Mortgage Market?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 59-87, February.
    11. Chintal Desai & Gregory Elliehausen & Edward Lawrence, 2014. "On the County-Level Credit Outcome Beta," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 201-218, April.
    12. Michelle J. White, 2007. "Bankruptcy Reform and Credit Cards," NBER Working Papers 13265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hayfield, Tristen & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: The np Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i05).
    14. Henderson, Daniel J. & Polachek, Solomon W. & Wang, Le, 2011. "Heterogeneity in schooling rates of return," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1202-1214.
    15. Ronel Elul & Narayanan Subramanian, 2002. "Forum-Shopping and Personal Bankruptcy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 233-255, June.
    16. Daniel J. Henderson & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2006. "Public and Private Capital Productivity Puzzle: A Nonparametric Approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(1), pages 219-232, July.
    17. W. Walls, 2009. "Screen wars, star wars, and sequels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 447-461, October.
    18. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump, 2008. "Household bankruptcy decision: the role of social stigma vs. information sharing," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU08-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    19. Daniel J. Henderson, 2010. "A test for multimodality of regression derivatives with application to nonparametric growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 458-480.
    20. repec:clg:wpaper:2008-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Michelle J. White, 2005. "Economic Analysis of Corporate and Personal Bankruptcy Law," NBER Working Papers 11536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Semiparametric method; Single index model; Default probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:127:y:2015:i:c:p:54-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.