IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v58y2021ics1062940821001571.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment

Author

Listed:
  • Ding, Cherng G.
  • Wang, Hung-Jui
  • Lee, Meng-Che
  • Hung, Wen-Chi
  • Jane, Ten-Der

Abstract

Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Cherng G. & Wang, Hung-Jui & Lee, Meng-Che & Hung, Wen-Chi & Jane, Ten-Der, 2021. "Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821001571
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101547
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940821001571
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2021.101547?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cherng Ding & Hung-Jui Wang & Meng-Che Lee & Wen-Chi Hung & Chieh-Peng Lin, 2014. "How Does the Change in Investor Sentiment over Time Affect Stock Returns?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(S2), pages 144-158.
    2. Summers, L.H. & Summers, V.P., 1989. "When Financial Markets Work Too Well : A Cautious Case For A Securities Transactions Tax," Papers t12, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    4. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    5. John R. Conlon, 2004. "Simple Finite Horizon Bubbles Robust to Higher Order Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 927-936, May.
    6. Michael J. Cooper & Orlin Dimitrov & P. Raghavendra Rau, 2001. "A Rose.com by Any Other Name," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2371-2388, December.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    8. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    9. Ding, Cherng G. & Hung, Wen-Chi & Lee, Meng-Che & Wang, Hung-Jui, 2017. "Exploring paper characteristics that facilitate the knowledge flow from science to technology," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 244-256.
    10. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
    11. John R. Conlon, 2015. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles? Some Microeconomic Issues," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(582), pages 141-161, February.
    12. Yu-Jane Liu & Chih-Hsien Yu, 2002. "On the Effect of Stock Stabilization Fund: A Case of Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 93-109.
    13. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring.
    14. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    15. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    17. Robert B. Durand & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Daniel Chai & David Gallagher, 2016. "The Australian asset-pricing debate," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 393-421, June.
    18. Liu, Feng & Conlon, John R., 2018. "The simplest rational greater-fool bubble model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 38-57.
    19. Jason Greene & Scott Smart, 1999. "Liquidity Provision and Noise Trading: Evidence from the “Investment Dartboard” Column," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1885-1899, October.
    20. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    21. Cécile Bastidon & Nicolas Huchet & Yusuf Kocoglu, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 76-97, January.
    22. Dorn, Daniel, 2009. "Does Sentiment Drive the Retail Demand for IPOs?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 85-108, February.
    23. Kostopoulos, Dimitrios & Meyer, Steffen, 2018. "Disentangling investor sentiment: Mood and household attitudes towards the economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 28-78.
    24. Liu, Weimin, 2006. "A liquidity-augmented capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 631-671, December.
    25. Cherng G. Ding & Hung-Jui Wang & Meng-Che Lee & Wen-Chi Hung & Chieh-Peng Lin, 2014. "How Does the Change in Investor Sentiment over Time Affect Stock Returns?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2S), pages 144-158, March.
    26. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan, 2010. "The Impact of Short-Sales Constraints on Liquidity and the Liquidity-Return Relations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 521-535, November.
    27. Zhang, Mu & Zheng, Jie, 2017. "A robust reference-dependent model for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 232-258.
    28. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    29. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, June.
    30. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    31. Berkman, Henk & Eleswarapu, Venkat R., 1998. "Short-term traders and liquidity: a test using Bombay Stock Exchange data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 339-355, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    3. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    4. Zhang, Mu & Zheng, Jie, 2017. "A robust reference-dependent model for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 232-258.
    5. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    6. Li, Jinfang, 2017. "Investor sentiment, heterogeneous agents and asset pricing model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 504-512.
    7. Zhang, Chris H. & Frijns, Bart, 2019. "Noise trading and informational efficiency," EconStor Preprints 198037, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    9. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    10. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    11. Chen, Haozhi & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Research on the effect of firm-specific investor sentiment on the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Chinese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Alankar, Ashwin & Blausten, Peter & Scholes, Myron S., 2013. "The Cost of Constraints: Risk Management, Agency Theory and Asset Prices," Research Papers 2135, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    13. Di, Li & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich, 2021. "The power of investor sentiment in explaining bank stock performance: Listed conventional vs. Islamic banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    15. Feng Liu & Joseph S. White & John R. Conlon, 2023. "A Three‐State Rational Greater‐Fool Bubble Model With Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1565-1594, November.
    16. Mariem Talbi & Amel Ben Halima, 2019. "Global Contagion of Investor Sentiment during the US Subprime Crisis: The Case of the USA and the Region of Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 163-174.
    17. Carlos J. Perez & Manuel Santos, 2017. "On the Dynamics of Speculation in a Model of Bubbles and Manias," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    18. Mahmoudi, Nader & Docherty, Paul & Melia, Adrian, 2022. "Firm-level investor sentiment and corporate announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Chin‐Ho Chen, 2021. "Investor sentiment, misreaction, and the skewness‐return relationship," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1427-1455, September.
    20. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stock mispricing, hard-to-value stocks and the influence of internet stock message boards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reversal of investor sentiment; Social mood cycle; Growth modeling; Market liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821001571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.