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Dispersion in analysts’ target prices and stock returns

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  • Li, Xingjian
  • Feng, Hongrui
  • Yan, Shu
  • Wang, Heng

Abstract

We propose the dispersion in analysts’ target prices as a new measure of disagreement among analysts and a proxy of ex ante stock risk. In contrast to the negative return predictability of analysts’ earnings forecast dispersion but consistent with the risk hypothesis, we document a significant positive relation between the target price dispersion and future stock returns up to 24 months. The next-month return spread between the highest and lowest deciles sorted on the target price dispersion measures can be over 2%. Our findings cannot be explained by the standard risk factors and stock characteristics including the target price revision. Further supporting the risk hypothesis, the target price dispersion is positively related to future stock risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xingjian & Feng, Hongrui & Yan, Shu & Wang, Heng, 2021. "Dispersion in analysts’ target prices and stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s106294082100022x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101385
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    1. José Gabriel Astaiza Gómez & Camilo Andrés Pérez Pacheco, 2022. "Equity Analyst Reports and Stock Prices," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 41(73), pages 43-62, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst; Target price; Dispersion; Stock return; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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