IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v56y2016icp168-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gold and silver manipulation: What can be empirically verified?

Author

Listed:
  • Batten, Jonathan A.
  • Lucey, Brian M.
  • Peat, Maurice

Abstract

The issue of gold and silver price manipulation, in particular price suppression, is examined. We use a mixture of normal approach to decompose the returns into abnormal and control samples. Price suppression is a form of market manipulation of the runs type, where longer negative runs with lower returns than expected would be observed. To explore whether this form of manipulation can be empirically detected the length of runs and the total return observed during a run were computed for modelled abnormal and control clusters in gold and silver. In both metals the proportion of negative runs in the abnormal cluster is greater than the proportion of negative runs in the control cluster. In both cases the average return for negative runs is significantly lower in the abnormal cluster than in the control cluster. When average returns over positive runs are compared the abnormal group has significantly higher expected returns than the control group. Given the short maximum run lengths in the abnormal cluster and the fact that positive runs have significantly higher average returns in the abnormal cluster than in the control cluster, it is likely that that the high volatility associated with the abnormal cluster is the driver of the results presented in this study, as opposed to manipulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Batten, Jonathan A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice, 2016. "Gold and silver manipulation: What can be empirically verified?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 168-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:168-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316300530
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kon, Stanley J, 1984. "Models of Stock Returns-A Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 147-165, March.
    2. Broussard, John Paul & Nikiforov, Andrei, 2014. "Intraday periodicity in algorithmic trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 196-204.
    3. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Intraday volatility interaction between the crude oil and equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
    5. Martin Hauptfleisch & Tālis J. Putniņš & Brian Lucey, 2016. "Who Sets the Price of Gold? London or New York," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 564-586, June.
    6. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "On the performance of simple trading rules derived from the fractal dynamics of gold and silver price fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 255-267.
    7. Kallunki, Juha-Pekka & Mikkonen, Jenni & Nilsson, Henrik & Setterberg, Hanna, 2016. "Tax noncompliance and insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 157-173.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2013. "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3878-3889.
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas, 2015. "Dynamic spillovers between commodity and currency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 303-319.
    10. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1992. "Stock-Price Manipulation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 503-529.
    11. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Will precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-291.
    12. Syamala, Sudhakar Reddy & Reddy, V. Nagi & Goyal, Abhinav, 2014. "Commonality in liquidity: An empirical examination of emerging order-driven equity and derivatives market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 317-334.
    13. Persakis, Anthony & Iatridis, George Emmanuel, 2015. "Earnings quality under financial crisis: A global empirical investigation," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-35.
    14. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Microstructure order flow: statistical and economic evaluation of nonlinear forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 40-52.
    15. Batiz-Zuk, Enrique & Christodoulakis, George & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2015. "Credit contagion in the presence of non-normal shocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 129-139.
    16. Roger Silvers, 2016. "The Valuation Impact of SEC Enforcement Actions on Nontarget Foreign Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 187-234, March.
    17. Agrawal, Anup & Cooper, Tommy, 2015. "Insider trading before accounting scandals," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 169-190.
    18. Hull, Matthew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 45-61.
    19. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and suspected insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-330.
    20. Shiu, Yih-Wen & Lee, Chun I. & Gleason, Kimberly C., 2014. "Institutional shareholdings and the January effects in Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 49-66.
    21. Ciner, Cetin, 2015. "Time variation in systematic risk, returns and trading volume: Evidence from precious metals mining stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 277-283.
    22. Acquaah, Moses, 2015. "Determinants of corporate listings on stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 154-175.
    23. Gradojevic, Nikola, 2014. "Foreign exchange customers and dealers: Who’s driving whom?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 213-218.
    24. Craig Pirrong, 2004. "Detecting Manipulation in Futures Markets: The Ferruzzi Soybean Episode," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 28-71.
    25. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Yao, Yiran & Faff, Robert, 2016. "Diamonds vs. precious metals: What shines brightest in your investment portfolio?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-14.
    26. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Kanas, Angelos & Papachristou, George, 2015. "Information revelation in the Greek exchange opening call: Daily and intraday evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-184.
    27. Reza Bradrania, M. & Peat, Maurice & Satchell, Stephen, 2015. "Liquidity costs, idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 394-406.
    28. Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "Does the choice of performance measure influence the evaluation of commodity investments?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-150.
    29. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O'Connor, 2014. "Rationality in Precious Metals Forward Markets: Evidence of Behavioural Deviations in the Gold Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp462, IIIS.
    30. Chauhan, Yogesh & Kumar, K. Kiran & Chaturvedula, Chakrapani, 2016. "Information asymmetry and the information content of insider trades: Evidence from the Indian stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 65-79.
    31. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "A microstructure analysis of the carbon finance market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-234.
    32. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2014. "Shareholder wealth effects of stock dividends in a unique environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 66-81.
    33. Yılmaz, Mustafa Kemal & Erdem, Orhan & Eraslan, Veysel & Arık, Evren, 2015. "Technology upgrades in emerging equity markets: Effects on liquidity and trading activity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 87-92.
    34. Aktas, Osman Ulas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2014. "Market impacts of trades for stocks listed on the Borsa Istanbul," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 152-175.
    35. Aktas, Osman Ulas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2014. "Trade classification accuracy for the BIST," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 259-282.
    36. Chaturvedula, Chakrapani & Bang, Nupur Pavan & Rastogi, Nikhil & Kumar, Satish, 2015. "Price manipulation, front running and bulk trades: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 26-45.
    37. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    38. Azevedo, Alcino & Karim, Mohamad & Gregoriou, Andros & Rhodes, Mark, 2014. "Stock price and volume effects associated with changes in the composition of the FTSE Bursa Malaysian KLCI," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 20-35.
    39. Vendrame, Vasco & Tucker, Jon & Guermat, Cherif, 2016. "Some extensions of the CAPM for individual assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 78-85.
    40. Persakis, Anthony & Iatridis, George Emmanuel, 2015. "Cost of capital, audit and earnings quality under financial crisis: A global empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 3-24.
    41. Hou, Xiaohui & Wang, Qing & Zhang, Qi, 2014. "Market structure, risk taking, and the efficiency of Chinese commercial banks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 75-88.
    42. Cumming, Douglas & Dannhauser, Robert & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Financial market misconduct and agency conflicts: A synthesis and future directions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-168.
    43. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.
    44. Bhattacharjee, Kaushik & Bang, Nupur Pavan & Mamidanna, Sravya, 2014. "Transmission of pricing information between level III ADRs and their underlying domestic stocks: Empirical evidence from India," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 43-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mishra, Bibhuti Ranjan & Pradhan, Ashis Kumar & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "The dynamic causality between gold and silver prices in India: Evidence using time-varying and non-linear approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 66-76.
    2. Liu, Guo-Dong & Su, Chi-Wei, 2019. "The dynamic causality between gold and silver prices in China market: A rolling window bootstrap approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 101-106.
    3. Kadıoğlu, Eyüp & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Manipulation in the bond market and the role of investment funds: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Jonathan A. Batten & Igor LonČarski & Peter G. Szilagyi, 2022. "Financial Market Manipulation, Whistleblowing, and the Common Good: Evidence from the LIBOR Scandal," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(1), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.
    6. Sanjay Sehgal & Neharika Sobti & Florent Diesting, 2021. "Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1092-1123, July.
    7. Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Doker, Asli Cansin, 2020. "The relationship between commodity prices and world trade uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 276-281.
    8. Manahov, Viktor & Urquhart, Andrew, 2021. "The efficiency of Bitcoin: A strongly typed genetic programming approach to smart electronic Bitcoin markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    2. Cumming, Douglas & Ji, Shan & Peter, Rejo & Tarsalewska, Monika, 2020. "Market manipulation and innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Baur, Dirk G. & Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2020. "Investing in gold – Market timing or buy-and-hold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.
    5. Neupane, Suman & Rhee, S. Ghon & Vithanage, Kulunu & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2017. "Trade-based manipulation: Beyond the prosecuted cases," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-130.
    6. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and suspected insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-330.
    7. Cumming, Douglas & Dannhauser, Robert & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Financial market misconduct and agency conflicts: A synthesis and future directions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-168.
    8. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    9. Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "How predictable are precious metal returns?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1390-1413, November.
    10. Syeda Tayyaba Ijaz & Rabia Komal, 2015. "Role Of Hurst Exponent In Prediction Of Market Efficiency In Kse-100 Index," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 11(2), pages 11-14.
    11. Cumming, Douglas J. & Firth, Christopher & Gathergood, John & Stewart, Neil, 2021. "Covid, work-from-home, and securities misconduct," CFS Working Paper Series 666, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Douglas Cumming & Sofia Johan & Denis Schweizer, 2017. "Information systems, agency problems, and fraud," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 421-424, June.
    13. Mr. M. Awais Mehmood & Dr. Faisal Aftab & Dr. Hafiz Mushtaq, 2016. "Role Of Social Media Marketing (Smm) In Hei’S Admission," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 12(1), pages 12-10.
    14. Kadıoğlu, Eyüp & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Manipulation in the bond market and the role of investment funds: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "High frequency trading and end-of-day price dislocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-349.
    16. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Kosedag, Arman & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Is the price of gold to gold mining stocks asymmetric?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 402-407.
    17. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    18. Aharony, Joseph & Liu, Chelsea & Yawson, Alfred, 2015. "Corporate litigation and executive turnover," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 268-292.
    19. Batten, Jonathan A. & Lucey, Brian M. & McGroarty, Frank & Peat, Maurice & Urquhart, Andrew, 2018. "Does intraday technical trading have predictive power in precious metal markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-113.
    20. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    High frequency; Manipulation; Gold; Silver; Price suppression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:168-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.