The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting
AbstractSurveys improve forecasting performance by adding explanatory power to a model which is based on only past values of manufacturing growth. The issue addressed in this paper is whether surveys of production expectations, when added to equations that contain lagged values of a headline index pertaining to the real economy, improve forecasting performance. If so, it may be better for researchers to use not just the headline index, but production expectations or the Economic Sentiment Indicator if they wish to better predict manufacturing growth.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
Surveys Forecasting Evaluation European Union;
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- Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
- Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Jan).
- Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
- Hall, Stephen George & Roudoi, Andrei & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Lupu, Radu & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2014. "Lawrence R. Klein and the Economic Forecasting – A Survey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-14, March.
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