The welfare state, thresholds, and economic growth
AbstractCan a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an econ-omy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly en-dogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over the period 1950-2001, we find that the structural decline in growth rates that several welfare state economies expe-rienced during 1970-1975 are preceded by movements to a high welfare state regime. This suggests that expanding welfare state regimes are associated with low economic growth regimes, while contracting welfare state regimes are associated with high growth regimes. However, we also find that the structural decline in growth rates leads to a downward structural break in the welfare state for many welfare state economies. This suggests that declining growth regimes are associated with contracting welfare state regimes, as lower growth forces politicians to cut the size of the welfare state. We also report strong evidence that both expansion and contractions in the welfare state affects growth non-linearly. These results are able to characterize a predictable and general pattern of welfare stateâgrowth evolution.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 22 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
Other versions of this item:
- Tatiana Fic & Chetan Ghate, 2004. "The Welfare State, Thresholds, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 424, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
- David Romer, 1997.
"Misconceptions and Political Outcomes,"
NBER Working Papers
6117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shigehara, Kumiharu, 1992. "Causes of declining growth in industrialized countries," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 15-39.
- Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2003. "The Political and Economic Determinants of Budgetary Consolidation in Europe," European Political Economy Review, European Political Economy Infrastructure Consortium, vol. 1(Spring), pages 15-39.
- Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
- Ghate Chetan, 2003.
"The Politics of Endogenous Growth,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, August.
- Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998.
"The New Empirics of Economic Growth,"
98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2000.
"Growth economics and reality,"
24, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993.
"Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
- William Easterly & Sergio Rebelo, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chetan Ghate & Paul J. Zak, .
"Growth of Government And The Politics of Fiscal Policy,"
Claremont Colleges Working Papers
2000-19, Claremont Colleges.
- Ghate, Chetan & Zak, Paul J., 2002. "Growth of government and the politics of fiscal policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 435-455, December.
- A. B. Atkinson, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Rolling Back the Welfare State," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011719, January.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992.
"A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1996.
"Growing Through Cycles,"
1203, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Stephen Brock Blomberg, 1992.
"Growth, political instability, and the defense burden,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
436, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Blomberg, S Brock, 1996. "Growth, Political Instability and the Defence Burden," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(252), pages 649-72, November.
- S. Brock Blomberg, 1994. "Growth, political instability and the defense burden," Research Paper 9420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
- Vito Tanzi & Howell H. Zee, 1996.
"Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
96/119, International Monetary Fund.
- Nordhaus, William D., 1982.
"Economic policy in the face of declining productivity growth,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 131-157.
- Nordhaus, William D., 1982. "Economic policy in the face of declining productivity growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 131-157.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1981. "Economic Policy in the Face of Declining Productivity Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 604, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Durlauf,S.N., 2000. "Econometric analysis and the study of economic growth : a skeptical perspective," Working papers 10, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Martijn Brons & Henri L.F.M. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 1999. "Growth Effects of Fiscal Policies - A Comparative Analysis in a Multi-Country Context," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-042/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Tanzi, Vito & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1997. "Reforming government: An overview of recent experience," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 395-417, September.
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
- Aschauer, David Alan, 1989.
"Is public expenditure productive?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
- Hansson, Asa & Stuart, Charles, 2003. "Peaking of fiscal sizes of government," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 669-684, November.
- Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Fisher, Walter H., 1995. "The composition of government expenditure and its consequences for macroeconomic performance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-786, May.
- Rioja, Felix K., 1999. "Productiveness and welfare implications of public infrastructure: a dynamic two-sector general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-404, April.
- Graham C. Scott, 1996. "Government Reform in New Zealand," IMF Occasional Papers 140, International Monetary Fund.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "Cross-country studies of growth and policy : methodological, conceptual, and statistical problems," Policy Research Working Paper Series 608, The World Bank.
- João Sousa Andrade & Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Despesa Pública em Educação e Saúde e Crescimento Económico: Um Contributo para o Debate sobre as Funções Sociais do Estado," GEMF Working Papers 2013-18, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.