IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v127y2023ics0264999323002389.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unveiling the trade and welfare effects of regional services trade agreements: A structural gravity approach

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Qi
  • Lin, Xi

Abstract

Liberalization of services trade has become a critical economic agenda in the world. Although previous studies have examined the impact of regional services trade agreements (services RTAs) on services trade, little attention is paid to assessing the estimation consistency with structural gravity theory and analyzing the general equilibrium effects of services RTAs. Using data from 43 economies plus a “rest-of-the-world” over the period 2000–2014, we propose a theoretically consistent adjustment for structural gravity estimations and re-evaluate the services RTAs impact on services trade. Proper controlling for intra-national services trade flows leads to a large, positive, and statistically significant services RTAs effect. Furthermore, the general equilibrium comparative static analysis reveals that services RTAs have different effects on services exports and economic welfare among all economics. Finally, we counterfactually estimate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the three mega-services RTAs and provide several important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2023. "Unveiling the trade and welfare effects of regional services trade agreements: A structural gravity approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:127:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323002389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106426
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323002389
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106426?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Felbermayr , Gabriel & Larch, Mario & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto, 2020. "On the Heterogeneous Trade and Welfare Effects of GATT/WTO Membership," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-12, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990–2002," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 279-298.
    3. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "GEPPML: General equilibrium analysis with PPML," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2750-2782, October.
    4. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    6. Juan A. Marchetti, 2011. "Do Economic Integration Agreements Lead to Deeper Integration of Services Markets?," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. K. C. Fung & Alan Siu, 2008. "Political Economy Of Service Trade Liberalization And The Doha Round," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 124-133, February.
    8. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    9. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    10. Matthew T. Cole & Amélie Guillin, 2015. "The determinants of trade agreements in services vs. goods," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 144, pages 66-82.
    11. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-160, February.
    12. James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2010. "The Changing Incidence of Geography," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-2186, December.
    13. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jan), pages 49-63.
    14. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2015. "Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 221-238, May.
    15. Amélie Guillin, 2013. "Trade in Services and Regional Trade Agreements: Do Negotiations on Services Have to be Specific?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1406-1423, November.
    16. Innwon Park & Soonchan Park, 2011. "Regional Liberalisation of Trade in Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 725-740, May.
    17. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    18. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    19. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka & Yotov, Yoto, 2018. "On the Bi- and Uni-lateral Trade Effects of EMU Membership," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-4, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    20. Hur, Jung & Park, Cheolbeom, 2012. "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Economic Growth of the Member Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1283-1294.
    21. Jaimin Lee & Seong-Hoon Cho, 2017. "Free trade agreement and transport service trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1494-1512, July.
    22. Erik Marel & Ben Shepherd, 2013. "Services Trade, Regulation and Regional Integration: Evidence from Sectoral Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1393-1405, November.
    23. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    24. Peter Egger & Anirudh Shingal, 2021. "Determinants of services trade agreement membership," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 21-64, February.
    25. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
    26. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    27. Egger, Hartmut & Egger, Peter & Greenaway, David, 2008. "The trade structure effects of endogenous regional trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 278-298, March.
    28. Amélie Guillin, 2012. "The impacts of Regional Trade Agreements in force in Europe on trade in services," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 685-697.
    29. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    30. Nazire Nergiz Dincer & Ayça Tekin‐Koru, 2020. "The effect of border barriers to services trade on goods trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(8), pages 2093-2118, August.
    31. Malki, Mostafa & Thompson, Henry, 2014. "Morocco and the US Free Trade Agreement: A specific factors model with unemployment and energy imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 269-274.
    32. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    6. Julia Spornberger, 2022. "EU integration and structural gravity: A comprehensive quantification of the border effect on trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 915-938, September.
    7. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    8. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto V., 2016. "Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2016-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Fontagné, Lionel & Santoni, Gianluca, 2021. "GVCs and the endogenous geography of RTAs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    11. Ingo Borchert & Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Disaggregated gravity: Benchmark estimates and stylized facts from a new database," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 113-136, February.
    12. Herman, Peter R. & Oliver, Sarah, 2023. "Trade, policy, and economic development in the digital economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    14. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.
    15. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
    16. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Camille Reverdy, 2023. "Estimating the general equilibrium effects of services trade liberalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 493-521, May.
    18. Laurent Didier, 2018. "Do environmental provisions in regional trade agreements affect trade in services?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 733-750.
    19. Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Esteve-Pérez, Silviano & Gil-Pareja, Salvador, 2023. "A re-assessment of the heterogeneous effect of trade agreements using intra-national trade flows," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 940-951.
    20. Ridley, William & Luckstead, Jeff & Devadoss, Stephen, 2022. "Wine: The punching bag in trade retaliation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Services RTAs; Trade in services; Trade and welfare effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:127:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323002389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.