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Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball

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  • Guerra, Manuel
  • Kort, Peter
  • Nunes, Cláudia
  • Oliveira, Carlos

Abstract

This paper analyses the following hitherto understudied feature in real switching options: a firm has a mothballing option and an option to permanently abandon. If the firm finds itself in an operating mode with a price just above the abandonment threshold, it is unclear whether to exercise the abandonment option or to exercise the mothballing option. If the price goes down, the firm may exit, but, surprisingly, if it goes up, it may mothball. We find that two different strategies could be optimal: one where mothballing is not a viable option and one where mothballing does occur. In the latter case a hysteresis region arises in which the firm produces at a loss, while a further price decrease induces exit and a sufficient price increase results in the firm entering the mothballing stage. Mothballing being optimal requires sufficiently large values of the price trend and the uncertainty parameter.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerra, Manuel & Kort, Peter & Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos, 2018. "Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 69-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:92:y:2018:i:c:p:69-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.04.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    2. Alexandra Moura & Carlos Oliveira, 2024. "Reputation risk mitigation in investment strategies," Working Papers REM 2024/0309, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Comincioli, Nicola & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Menoncin, Francesco & Miniaci, Raffaele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Michi Nishihara & Takashi Shibata, 2019. "The effects of asset liquidity on dynamic bankruptcy decisions," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 19-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2021. "The effects of asset liquidity on dynamic sell-out and bankruptcy decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 1017-1035.
    6. Oliveira, Carlos & Perkowski, Nicolas, 2020. "Optimal investment decision under switching regimes of subsidy support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 120-132.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real options; Mothballing; Exit; Hysteresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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