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Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents

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  • Den Haan, Wouter J.

Abstract

This paper shows that the R2 and the standard error have fatal flaws and are inadequate accuracy tests. Using data from a Krusell-Smith economy, I show that approximations for the law of motion of aggregate capital, for which the true standard deviation of aggregate capital is up to 14% (119%) higher than the implied value and which are thus clearly inaccurate, can have an R2 as high as 0.9999 (0.99). Key in generating a more powerful test is that predictions of the aggregate law of motion are not updated with the aggregated simulated individual data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 79-99

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:1:p:79-99

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Numerical solutions Simulations Approximations;

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References

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  1. Michael Reiter, 2006. "Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation," Economics Working Papers 972, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Silos, Pedro, 2007. "Housing, portfolio choice and the macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2774-2801, August.
  3. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Limited Risk Sharing and Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 415-448, January.
  4. Eric R Young, 2005. "Approximate Aggregation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 141, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Manuel S. Santos & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2003. "Accuracy of Simulations for Stochastic Dynamic Models," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000264, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Makoto Nakajima, 2006. "Business Cycles in the Equilibrium Model of Labor Search and Self-Insurance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 426, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Business Cycles In The Equilibrium Model Of Labor Market Search And Self‐Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 399-432, 05.
  8. Manuel S. Santos, 2000. "Accuracy of Numerical Solutions using the Euler Equation Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1377-1402, November.
  9. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice, and Equilibrium Asset Returns," GSIA Working Papers 1997-45, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  10. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 1996. "Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk and overlapping generations," Economics Working Papers 405, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 1999.
  11. Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  12. Yann Algan & Olivier Allais & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2006. "Solving heterogeneous-agent models with parameterized cross-sectional distributions," PSE Working Papers halshs-00589129, HAL.
  13. Den Haan, Wouter J, 1996. "Heterogeneity, Aggregate Uncertainty, and the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 399-411, October.
  14. Den Haan, Wouter J., 1997. "Solving Dynamic Models With Aggregate Shocks And Heterogeneous Agents," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 355-386, June.
  15. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using explicit aggregation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-78, January.
  16. Krueger, Dirk & Kubler, Felix, 2004. "Computing equilibrium in OLG models with stochastic production," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1411-1436, April.
  17. Michael Reiter, 2000. "Estimating The Accuracy Of Numerical Solutions To Dynamic Optimization Problems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 254, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1997. "Computation of equilibria in heterogeneous agent models," Staff Report 231, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei, 2009. "Does Lumy Investment Matter for Business Cycles?," MPRA Paper 14977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Comparison of solutions to the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 4-27, January.
  3. Volker Tjaden & Ralph Lütticke & Lien Pham & Christian Bayer, 2013. "Household Income Risk, Nominal Frictions, and Incomplete Markets," 2013 Meeting Papers 1270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Rüdiger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2011. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 16861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Immo Schott, 2013. "Startups, Credit, and the Jobless Recovery," 2013 Meeting Papers 340, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Fatih Guvenen, 2011. "Macroeconomics With Heterogeneity: A Practical Guide," NBER Working Papers 17622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Den Haan, Wouter & Rendahl, Pontus, 2008. "Solving the Incomplete Markets Model with Aggregate Uncertainty using Explicit Aggregation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013, August.
  9. Francisco Covas & Shigeru Fujita, 2007. "Private risk premium and aggregate uncertainty in the model of uninsurable investment risk," Working Papers 07-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Joseph Vavra, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
  11. Joseph Vavra, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Uncertainty: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," 2011 Meeting Papers 126, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2013. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 19217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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