The effects of uncertainty on optimal consumption
AbstractWhen marginal utility is convex and there is pure labour income uncertainty, certain results are well-known. Asset return uncertainty is often assumed to have qualitatively similar effects; see e.g. Skinner (1988). We show that this assumption is not correct. Asset return uncertainty gives rise to an additional term in the Euler equation, which by introducing a role for current cash-in-hand, may work in the opposite direction to the precautionary motive, leading to ambiguity in the slope of the expected consumption time profile. We present a linearised version of the Euler equation, and an associated closed form solution, in order to provide intuition for these results. Numerical analysis indicates that the approximation is reasonable for empirically plausible estimates of the variances of the underlying disturbances.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 25 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Other versions of this item:
- Mason, R. & Wright, S., 1999. "The effects of uncertainty on optimal consumption," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9907, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gabriel Talmain, 1994. "Exact and Approximate Solutions to the Problem of Precautionary Savings," Discussion Papers 94-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Deaton, Angus, 1991.
"Saving and Liquidity Constraints,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
- Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989.
"Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May.
- Stephen Zeldes, . "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 859-71, September.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1997.
"Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation),"
NBER Working Papers
6298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carroll Christopher Dixon, 2001. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
- Christopher D Carroll, 1997. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," Economics Working Paper Archive 390, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "Mathematica code for Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation!," QM&RBC Codes 38, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Kimball, Miles S, 1996.
"On the Concavity of the Consumption Function,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 981-92, July.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the concavity of the consumption function," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Macroeconomics 9503003, EconWPA.
- van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for a Model of Precautionary Saving," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 385-95, April.
- Binder, M. & Pesaran, M. H. & Samiei, S. H., 1998. "Analytical and Numerical Solution of Finite-horizon Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9808, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
- Miles, David, 1997. "A Household Level Study of the Determinants of Incomes and Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 1-25, January.
- Weil, Philippe, 1993. "Precautionary Savings and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 367-83, April.
- Neave, Edwin H., 1971. "Multiperiod consumption-investment decisions and risk preference," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 40-53, March.
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, September.
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985.
"Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
- Siegel, Jeremy J., 1992. "The real rate of interest from 1800-1990 : A study of the U.S. and the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-252, April.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
- Kelly, Clare & Lanot, Gauthier, 2003.
"Analytical Results For A Model Of Periodic Consumption,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
673, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Clare Kelly & Gauthier Lanot, 2003. "Analytical Results for a Model of Periodic Consumption," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2003/01, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
- Aihua Zhang, 2007. "A closed-form solution to the continuous-time consumption model with endogenous labor income," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0710, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
- Aihua Zhang, 2010. "A closed-form solution for the continuous-time consumption model with endogenous labor income," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 149-167, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.