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Eladósodás, kockázat és óvatosság
[Optimal indebtedness in a small open economy showing precautionary behaviour]

Author

Listed:
  • Simon, András
  • Várpalotai, Viktor

Abstract

A tanulmány a fogyasztói magatartás elméletének legújabb vonulatát, az úgynevezett óvatossági megtakarítás modelljét alkalmazza ahhoz, hogy következtetéseket vonjon le az egyes országok eladósodási politikájára vonatkozóan. A hagyományos modellek determinisztikus jövedelemvárakozások mellett elemezték a fogyasztók döntéseit. Ilyen feltevések mellett nem magyarázható meg kielégítően, hogy miért nem ,,bátrabbak" a gyorsan növekvő országok a külső hitelek felvételében. Ha figyelembe vesszük a jövedelem sztochasztikusságát, és feltesszük, hogy a fogyasztó fél a szélsőséges ingadozásoktól, akkor ,,tartalékol'" a bizonytalan jövőre, vagyis óvatosabb lesz, nem vesz fel annyi hitelt. Túl nagy többletet sem fog felhalmozni, mert a fogyasztó előnyben részesíti a jelenbeli fogyasztást a jövőbelivel szemben. Így kialakul egy optimális pénzügyi pozíció (kinnlevőség vagy adósság), amelyben egyensúlyban van a türelmetlenség (és/vagy gyors növekedés) követelte eladósodási indíték és az óvatosságból származó többletfelhalmozási motívum. Az egyensúly feltételeit és tulajdonságait fogalmazza meg a tanulmány modell segítségével. A tanulmány kiegészíti Darvas-Simon [1999] számításait, amennyiben elméleti megalapozását adja a számításokból adódó következtetéseknek.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon, András & Várpalotai, Viktor, 2001. "Eladósodás, kockázat és óvatosság [Optimal indebtedness in a small open economy showing precautionary behaviour]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 363-392.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benczúr, Péter, 2004. "Nominális sokkok átmeneti reálhatása egy kétszektoros növekedési modellben [The temporary real effect of nominal shocks in a two-sector model of growth]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 101-126.

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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