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Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict

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  • Gallea, Quentin

Abstract

Despite the fact that weapons are necessary for conflicts, it remains unclear if weapons availability itself causes conflict. I use historical links between arms exporters and importers, and shocks to conflict engagement of the exporters, to instrument the volume of arms imports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that arms imports in Africa increase the likelihood of internal conflict, in particular one-sided violence, the number of fighter and civilian deaths, as well as the number of refugees fleeing the country. The results suggest that arms exporters have the ability to influence violence with their trade. Even if stopping exports might only postpone violence until more weapons are found, the momentary reduced violence could open a window to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful resolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallea, Quentin, 2023. "Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:160:y:2023:i:c:s0304387822001432
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Instrumental variables (IV) estimation; Internal conflict; Migration; Rebellion; Arms imports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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