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Did the war on terror deter ungoverned spaces? Not in Africa

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  • Downey, Mitch

Abstract

Many of the world's poorest citizens live in peripheral spaces their states have chosen not to control. Leaving these spaces ungoverned poses challenges for development, global terrorism, and conflict. Can the international community induce countries to invest in controlling their territory? I consider the Bush Administration's foreign policy, which, following the September 11th attacks, demanded that countries take active steps to reduce terrorist safe havens or risk a US invasion. Drawing upon recent work on the determinants of government control, I develop a difference-in-difference strategy to test for evidence of government expansions and implement this test using subnational data on conflict, government presence, and public goods in Africa. Across a wide range of specifications and measures, I consistently find precise estimates suggesting African states did not engage in these expansions. The results suggest that broad-based deterrence is an ineffective policy strategy to reduce ungoverned spaces.

Suggested Citation

  • Downey, Mitch, 2021. "Did the war on terror deter ungoverned spaces? Not in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:151:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821000274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102648
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    Cited by:

    1. Posso, Alberto, 2023. "Terrorism, banking, and informal savings: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National security; Ungoverned spaces; State capacity; Conflict; Deterrence; Africa; Foreign policy; Terrorism; War on terror;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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