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Estimating development resilience: A conditional moments-based approach

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  • Cissé, Jennifer Denno
  • Barrett, Christopher B.

Abstract

Despite significant spending on ‘resilience’ by international development agencies, no theory-based method for estimating or measuring development resilience has yet been developed. This paper introduces an econometric strategy for estimating individual or household-level development resilience from panel data. Estimation of multiple conditional moments of a welfare function—itself specified to permit potentially nonlinear path dynamics—enables the computation and forecasting of individual-specific conditional probabilities of satisfying a normative minimum standard of living. We then develop a decomposable resilience measure that enables aggregation of the individual-specific estimates to targetable subpopulation- and population-level measures. We illustrate the method empirically using household panel data from pastoralist communities in northern Kenya. The results demonstrate the method and its potential for targeting resilience-building interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cissé, Jennifer Denno & Barrett, Christopher B., 2018. "Estimating development resilience: A conditional moments-based approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 272-284.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:135:y:2018:i:c:p:272-284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.04.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; Poverty dynamics; Resilience; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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