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Bootstrap-based tests for deterministic time-varying coefficients in regression models

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  • Kapetanios, George
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    Abstract

    The problem of structural change justifiably attracts considerable attention in econometrics. A number of different paradigms have been adopted, ranging from structural breaks which are sudden and rare, to time-varying coefficient models, which exhibit structural change more frequently and continuously. This paper is concerned with parametric econometric models whose coefficients change deterministically and smoothly over time. In particular, tests for the null hypothesis of no structural change versus the alternative hypothesis of smooth deterministic structural change are provided and discussed. The use of bootstrap tests is advocated. These tests perform well in an extensive Monte Carlo study.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8V-4TDC089-2/2/8a9f3eaddc475d75a9dae3cebbad94e9
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 53 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (December)
    Pages: 534-545

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:53:y:2008:i:2:p:534-545

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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    References

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    1. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S. & Chang, I-Lok, 2005. "How stable are monetary policy rules: estimating the time-varying coefficients in monetary policy reaction function for the US," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 575-590, April.
    3. Orbe, Susan & Ferreira, Eva & Rodriguez-Poo, Juan, 2003. "An algorithm to estimate time-varying parameter SURE models under different types of restriction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 363-383, March.
    4. J. L. Horowitz, 1995. "Bootstrap Methods In Econometrics: Theory And Numerical Performance," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,63, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    6. Fan, Yanqin, 1998. "Goodness-Of-Fit Tests Based On Kernel Density Estimators With Fixed Smoothing Parameters," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 604-621, October.
    7. repec:wop:humbsf:1995-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Orbe, Susan & Ferreira, Eva & Rodriguez-Poo, Juan, 2005. "Nonparametric estimation of time varying parameters under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 53-77, May.
    9. O. Scaillet, 2001. "Density Estimation Using Inverse and Reciprocal Inverse Gaussian Kernels," THEMA Working Papers 2001-24, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    10. Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Numerical Performance," Econometrics 9602009, EconWPA, revised 05 Mar 1996.
    11. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Bickel, Peter J. & Stoker, Thomas M., 2001. "Goodness-of-fit tests for kernel regression with an application to option implied volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 363-412, December.
    12. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March.
    13. George Kapetanios & Elias Tzavalis, 2004. "The Impact of Large Structural Shocks on Economic Relationships: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 524, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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    Cited by:
    1. Emanuela Ciapanna & Marco Taboga, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of coefficient instability in dynamic regressions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 836, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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