China has reached the Lewis turning point
AbstractIn the past several years, labor shortage in China has become an emerging issue. However, there is heated debate on whether China has passed the Lewis turning point and entered a new era of labor shortage from a period of unlimited labor supply. Most empirical studies on this topic focus on the estimation of total labor supply and demand. Yet the poor quality of labor statistics leaves the debate open. In this paper, China's position along the Lewis continuum is examined though primary surveys of wage rates, a more reliable statistic than employment data. Our results show a clear rising trend of real wages rate since 2003. The acceleration of real wages even in slack seasons indicates that the era of surplus labor is over. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco
Dual economy; Surplus labor; Lewis model; Labor market;
Other versions of this item:
- J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
- J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
- O12 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Knight, 2007.
"China, South Africa and the Lewis Model,"
CSAE Working Paper Series
2007-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Knight, John, 2007. "China, South Africa, and the Lewis Model," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- John Knight, 2007. "China, South Africa and the Lewis Model," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2007-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Kaushik Basu, 2003. "Analytical Development Economics: The Less Developed Economy Revisited," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523442, January.
- Fan, Shenggen & Kanbur, Ravi & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2010. "China’s Regional Disparities: Experience and Policy," Working Papers 57041, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Edgerton, David L. & Opper, Sonja, 2013.
"A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China,"
Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-251.
- Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Edgerton, David & Opper, Sonja, 2011. "A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China," Working Papers 2011:23, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Mar 2012.
- Qin, Yu & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2012. "The road to specialization in agricultural production:: Evidence from rural China," IFPRI discussion papers 1221, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Tomoyuki Fukumoto & Ichiro Muto, 2012.
"Rebalancing China's Economic Growth: Some Insights from Japan's Experience,"
China & World Economy,
Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 62-82, 01.
- Muto, Ichiro & Fukumoto, Tomoyuki, 2011. "Rebalancing China’s economic growth: some insights from Japan’s experience," MPRA Paper 32570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christiaensen, Luc & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2012.
"Greening China's rural energy : new insights on the potential of smallholder biogas,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
6102, The World Bank.
- Christiaensen, Luc & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2014. "Greening China's rural energy: new insights on the potential of smallholder biogas," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 8-29, February.
- Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing & Xia, Fang, 2012. "Moving off the farm: Land institutions to facilitate structural transformation and agricultural productivity growth in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5949, The World Bank.
- Binkai Chen & Ming Lu & Ninghua Zhong, 2012. "Hukou and Consumption Heterogeneity: Migrants' Expenditure Is Depressed by Institutional Constraints in Urban China," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-221, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Mayer, Jörg, 2012. "Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 627-642.
- Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
- Jianqing, Ruan & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2010. "Do geese migrate domestically?: Evidence from the Chinese textile and apparel industry," IFPRI discussion papers 1040, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Qin, Yu & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2012. "Road to Specialization in Agricultural Production: Evidence from Rural China," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126455, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Roberto Fanfani & Nica Claudia Calò, 2011. "Rural Areas and Agricultural Holdings in China: What Has Changed Within Ten Years from the 1996 to the 2006?," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.