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An Empirical Analysis of the Lewis-Ranis-FEi Theory of Dualistic Economic Development for China

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  • Marco G. Ercolani
  • Zheng Wei

Abstract

We employ the Lewis-Ranis-Fei theory of dualistic economic development as a framework to investigate China's rapid growth over 1965-2002. We find that China's economic growth is mainly attributable to the development of the non-agricultural (industrial and service) sector, driven by rapid labour migration and capital accumulation. Our estimates of the sectoral marginal productivity of labour indicate that China's 1978 Economic Reform coincided with moving from phase one to phase tow growth, as defined in the Lewis-Ranis-Fei model. This implies that phase three growth could be achieved by commercialisation of the Chinese agricultural labour market.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 10-06.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:10-06

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Keywords: agricultural; development; dualistic growth; labour migration; subsistence;

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  1. Kwan, Yum K. & Chow, Gregory C., 1996. "Estimating Economic Effects of Political Movements in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 192-208, October.
  2. Carsten A. Holz, 2005. "New Capital Estimates for China," Development and Comp Systems 0504011, EconWPA.
  3. Chow, G.C., 1990. "Capital Formation And Economic Growth In China," Papers 356, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Yasmina Reem Limam & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Explaining Economic Growth: Factor Accumulation, Total Factor Productivity Growth, and Production Efficiency Improvement," Working papers 2004-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  5. Putterman, Louis, 1992. "Dualism and Reform in China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 467-93, April.
  6. Lewis, W Arthur, 1979. "The Dual Economy Revisited," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 47(3), pages 211-29, September.
  7. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 2004. "Generalizations of the KPSS-test for stationarity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 483-502.
  8. Knight, John, 2007. "China, South Africa, and the Lewis Model," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  9. Gregory Chow, 2006. "Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?," CESifo Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 396-414, June.
  10. Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2003. "Rural-urban migration and urbanization in China: Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 386-400.
  11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
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