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A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China

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  • Fang Cai
  • Meiyan Wang

Abstract

Using a counterfactual analysis approach, the present paper examines a host of conventional wisdoms relating to issues of farmer, the countryside and agriculture, which are believed to be all originated from the existence of mass surplus laborers in China. When analyzing various sources of statistics, evidence shows that there is no longer a large pool of surplus laborers in rural China as most people believe. Based on this counterfactual result, all related events, such as the direction of agricultural technological changes, the level of comparative productivity of agricultural labor, and the degree of rural‐urban income gap must be reconsidered.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Cai & Meiyan Wang, 2008. "A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 51-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:16:y:2008:i:1:p:51-65
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00099.x
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    Cited by:

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    14. Huanxiu Guo & Sébastien Marchand, 2013. "Is participatory social learning a performance driver for Chinese smallholder farmers?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00878886, HAL.
    15. Dong, Qi & Murakami, Tomoaki & Nakashima, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Induced Bias of Technological Change in Agriculture and Structural Transformation: A Translog Cost Function Analysis of Chinese Cereal Production," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315373, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    18. Qian Wang & Qiao-Mei Liang, 2015. "Will a carbon tax hinder China’s efforts to improve its primary income distribution status?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1407-1436, December.
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    24. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
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