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Future demand for electricity in Nigeria

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  • Ibitoye, F.I.
  • Adenikinju, A.

Abstract

Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500Â MW to over 160Â GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000Â kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US$3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US$21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US$262 billion or roughly US$10 billion per annum.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibitoye, F.I. & Adenikinju, A., 2007. "Future demand for electricity in Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(5), pages 492-504, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:84:y:2007:i:5:p:492-504
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    1. World Bank, 2004. "The Little Data Book 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13919, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oyedepo, Sunday Olayinka, 2014. "Towards achieving energy for sustainable development in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 255-272.
    2. Ogunmodimu, Olumide & Okoroigwe, Edmund C., 2019. "Solar thermal electricity in Nigeria: Prospects and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 440-448.
    3. Khoury, J. & Mbayed, R. & Salloum, G. & Monmasson, E. & Guerrero, J., 2016. "Review on the integration of photovoltaic renewable energy in developing countries—Special attention to the Lebanese case," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 562-575.
    4. Aliyu Aliyu & Neyre Tekbiyik-Ersoy, 2019. "A Novel Framework for Cost Optimization of Renewable Energy Installations: A Case Study of Nigeria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-26, November.
    5. Brimmo, Ayoola T. & Sodiq, Ahmed & Sofela, Samuel & Kolo, Isa, 2017. "Sustainable energy development in Nigeria: Wind, hydropower, geothermal and nuclear (Vol. 1)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 474-490.
    6. Ugwoke, B. & Gershon, O. & Becchio, C. & Corgnati, S.P. & Leone, P., 2020. "A review of Nigerian energy access studies: The story told so far," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Ohimain, Elijah I. & Izah, Sylvester C., 2014. "Energy self-sufficiency of smallholder oil palm processing in Nigeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 426-431.
    8. Okoye, Chiemeka Onyeka & Taylan, Onur, 2017. "Performance analysis of a solar chimney power plant for rural areas in Nigeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 96-108.
    9. Adaramola, M.S. & Oyewola, O.M., 2011. "On wind speed pattern and energy potential in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2501-2506, May.
    10. Okoye, Chiemeka Onyeka & Solyalı, Oğuz, 2017. "Optimal sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems in residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 573-584.
    11. Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Abbas, Faisal, 2016. "The dynamics of electricity demand in Pakistan: A panel cointegration analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1159-1178.
    12. Gujba, H. & Mulugetta, Y. & Azapagic, A., 2010. "Environmental and economic appraisal of power generation capacity expansion plan in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5636-5652, October.
    13. Ohunakin, O.S. & Adaramola, M.S. & Oyewola, O.M., 2011. "Wind energy evaluation for electricity generation using WECS in seven selected locations in Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(9), pages 3197-3206.
    14. Okoye, Chiemeka Onyeka & Taylan, Onur & Baker, Derek K., 2016. "Solar energy potentials in strategically located cities in Nigeria: Review, resource assessment and PV system design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 550-566.
    15. Aalami, H.A. & Moghaddam, M. Parsa & Yousefi, G.R., 2010. "Demand response modeling considering Interruptible/Curtailable loads and capacity market programs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 243-250, January.
    16. Giwa, Adewale & Alabi, Adetunji & Yusuf, Ahmed & Olukan, Tuza, 2017. "A comprehensive review on biomass and solar energy for sustainable energy generation in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 620-641.
    17. Olusola Olugbemileke Johnson & Abayomi Joseph Odekoya & Obinna Lawrence Umeh, 2012. "Factors Influencing the Usage of Compact Fluorescent Lamps in Existing Residential Buildings in Lagos, Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 63-70.
    18. Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2016. "Determinants of import demand for non-renewable energy (petroleum) products: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 73-93.
    19. Bamisile, Olusola & Huang, Qi & Xu, Xiao & Hu, Weihao & Liu, Wen & Liu, Zhou & Chen, Zhe, 2020. "An approach for sustainable energy planning towards 100 % electrification of Nigeria by 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    20. Trotter, Philipp A. & McManus, Marcelle C. & Maconachie, Roy, 2017. "Electricity planning and implementation in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1189-1209.
    21. Ikpe, Eka & Torriti, Jacopo, 2018. "A means to an industrialisation end? Demand Side Management in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 207-215.
    22. Ochia, Stevenson Enemuwa (Doctorial Student) & Bobmanuel, Karibi Benson PhD & Umunnah, Blessing Onyinyechukwu PhD, 2022. "Port Harcourt Residents’ Perception of Energyplatform Programme on Nigeria Info 92.3FM," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(12), pages 794-802, December.
    23. Gujba, H. & Mulugetta, Y. & Azapagic, A., 2011. "Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 968-980, February.
    24. Oseni, Musiliu O., 2011. "An analysis of the power sector performance in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4765-4774.
    25. Adaramola, M.S. & Oyewola, O.M., 2011. "Evaluating the performance of wind turbines in selected locations in Oyo state, Nigeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3297-3304.

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