IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v353y2024ipas0306261923014034.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cost-effective energy development pathway considering air quality co-benefits under climate target: A case study of Anhui Province in China

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Shuting
  • An, Kangxin
  • Zhang, Shihui
  • Wang, Can

Abstract

Achieving the national climate targets requires the motivation of local actions. Air quality is still an important environmental issue in China that needs careful consideration in the design of energy development pathways, particularly in locations with a high‑carbon energy system. Using Anhui as a typical example, this study examines the economic costs and air quality synergies of various energy development pathways to achieve its climate goals using the Monte Carlo method and coupling a regional computable general equilibrium model and a reduced-complexity air quality model. The results show that the economic impact of the promoting electrification pathway would be 1.4–4.5% of GDP in 2035, while the loss of GDP from developing the renewable energy pathway would be only 1.1–1.4%. Compared to renewable energy development, promoting higher electrification leads to a larger air quality improvement. Therefore, the cost-effective energy development pathway requests higher electrification when considering air quality co-benefits. Results show that the optimal energy development pathway for Anhui Province in 2035 is a rate of electrification of 25%–35%, with a renewable energy ratio of 15%–25%. The study suggests an appropriate approach for optimizing energy development pathways at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Shuting & An, Kangxin & Zhang, Shihui & Wang, Can, 2024. "Cost-effective energy development pathway considering air quality co-benefits under climate target: A case study of Anhui Province in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:353:y:2024:i:pa:s0306261923014034
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923014034
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Mu, Yaqian & Cai, Wenjia & Evans, Samuel & Wang, Can & Roland-Holst, David, 2018. "Employment impacts of renewable energy policies in China: A decomposition analysis based on a CGE modeling framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 256-267.
    3. Li, Jin & Wang, Rui & Li, Haoran & Nie, Yaoyu & Song, Xinke & Li, Mingyu & Shi, Mai & Zheng, Xinzhu & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2021. "Unit-level cost-benefit analysis for coal power plants retrofitted with biomass co-firing at a national level by combined GIS and life cycle assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    4. Hu, Haisheng & Dong, Wanhao & Zhou, Qian, 2021. "A comparative study on the environmental and economic effects of a resource tax and carbon tax in China: Analysis based on the computable general equilibrium model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. An, Kangxin & Zhang, Shihui & Huang, Hai & Liu, Yuan & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2021. "Socioeconomic impacts of household participation in emission trading scheme: A Computable General Equilibrium-based case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    6. Mittal, Shivika & Dai, Hancheng & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Bridging greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy deployment target: Comparative assessment of China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 301-313.
    7. Wing, Ian Sue, 2006. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technologies and the cost of limiting US CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3847-3869, December.
    8. Wu, Rui & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko & Tian, Xu, 2016. "Achieving China’s INDC through carbon cap-and-trade: Insights from Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1114-1122.
    9. Mu, Yaqian & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "The economic impact of China's INDC: Distinguishing the roles of the renewable energy quota and the carbon market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2955-2966.
    10. Shu Zhang & Wenying Chen, 2022. "Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. An, Kangxin & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2023. "Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 253-263.
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Wei, 2021. "The impact of electric vehicle penetration: A recursive dynamic CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Zoi Vrontisi & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Maria Kannavou & Pantelis Capros, 2020. "Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1857-1875, October.
    14. Philip J. Heptonstall & Robert J. K. Gross, 2021. "A systematic review of the costs and impacts of integrating variable renewables into power grids," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 72-83, January.
    15. Cui, Qi & Liu, Yu & Ali, Tariq & Gao, Ji & Chen, Hao, 2020. "Economic and climate impacts of reducing China's renewable electricity curtailment: A comparison between CGE models with alternative nesting structures of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Tasios, Nikos & Paroussos, Leonidas & Capros, Pantelis & Tsani, Stella, 2017. "Energy system impacts and policy implications of the European Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and low-carbon pathway to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 216-226.
    17. Can Wang & Hai Huang & Wenjia Cai & Mengzhen Zhao & Jin Li & Shihui Zhang & Yuan Liu, 2020. "Economic Impacts Of Climate Change And Air Pollution In China Through Health And Labor Supply Perspective: An Integrated Assessment Model Analysis," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 1-28, August.
    18. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bing Wang & Jing Meng & Zhu Liu & Yuli Shan & Jingru Liu & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 103, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cao, Jing & Dai, Hancheng & Li, Shantong & Guo, Chaoyi & Ho, Mun & Cai, Wenjia & He, Jianwu & Huang, Hai & Li, Jifeng & Liu, Yu & Qian, Haoqi & Wang, Can & Wu, Libo & Zhang, Xiliang, 2021. "The general equilibrium impacts of carbon tax policy in China: A multi-model comparison," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. An, Kangxin & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2023. "Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 253-263.
    3. Tobias Mueller & Steven Gronau, 2023. "Fostering Macroeconomic Research on Hydrogen-Powered Aviation: A Systematic Literature Review on General Equilibrium Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Wei Wei & Ling He & Xiaofan Li & Qi Cui & Hao Chen, 2022. "The Effectiveness and Trade-Offs of Renewable Energy Policies in Achieving the Dual Decarbonization Goals in China: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Jie Wu & Ying Fan & Yan Xia, 2017. "How Can China Achieve Its Nationally Determined Contribution Targets Combining Emissions Trading Scheme and Renewable Energy Policies?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Bohlmann, H.R. & Horridge, J.M. & Inglesi-Lotz, R. & Roos, E.L. & Stander, L., 2019. "Regional employment and economic growth effects of South Africa’s transition to low-carbon energy supply mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 830-837.
    7. Li, Wei & Lu, Can & Zhang, Yan-Wu, 2019. "Prospective exploration of future renewable portfolio standard schemes in China via a multi-sector CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 45-56.
    8. Le Treut, Gaëlle & Lefèvre, Julien & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Huang, Hai & Roland-Holst, David & Springer, Cecilia & Lin, Jiang & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Emissions trading systems and social equity: A CGE assessment for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1254-1265.
    10. Qiujie Sun & Jingyu Zhou & Zhou Lan & Xiangyang Ma, 2023. "The Economic Influence of Energy Storage Construction in the Context of New Power Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    11. Hu, Yingying & Wu, Wei, 2023. "Can fossil energy make a soft landing？— the carbon-neutral pathway in China accompanying CCS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    12. Liu, Zefeng & Wang, Chaoyang & Fan, Jianlin & Liu, Ming & Xing, Yong & Yan, Junjie, 2024. "Enhancing the flexibility and stability of coal-fired power plants by optimizing control schemes of throttling high-pressure extraction steam," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    13. Wu, Rongxin & Tan, Zhizhou & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Does carbon emission trading scheme really improve the CO2 emission efficiency? Evidence from China's iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    14. Wu, Qunli & Ma, Zhe & Meng, Fanxing, 2022. "Long-term impacts of carbon allowance allocation in China: An IC-DCGE model optimized by the hypothesis of imperfectly competitive market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    15. An, Kangxin & Zhang, Shihui & Huang, Hai & Liu, Yuan & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2021. "Socioeconomic impacts of household participation in emission trading scheme: A Computable General Equilibrium-based case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    16. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Jiang, Minxing & Wang, Ping & Wu, Zhanchi & Xie, Rui & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2019. "Achieving the carbon intensity target of China: A least squares support vector machine with mixture kernel function approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 196-207.
    17. Zhou, Sheng & Tong, Qing & Pan, Xunzhang & Cao, Min & Wang, Hailin & Gao, Ji & Ou, Xunmin, 2021. "Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. Weijiang Liu & Tingting Liu & Yangyang Li & Min Liu, 2021. "Recycling Carbon Tax under Different Energy Efficiency Improvements: A CGE Analysis of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, April.
    19. Weng, Yuwei & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2021. "Evaluating the use of BECCS and afforestation under China’s carbon-neutral target for 2060," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    20. Weijiang Liu & Min Liu & Tingting Liu & Yangyang Li & Yizhe Hao, 2022. "Does a Recycling Carbon Tax with Technological Progress in Clean Electricity Drive the Green Economy?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:353:y:2024:i:pa:s0306261923014034. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.