IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v253y2019ic108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cost-optimal reliable power generation in a deep decarbonisation future

Author

Listed:
  • van Zuijlen, Bas
  • Zappa, William
  • Turkenburg, Wim
  • van der Schrier, Gerard
  • van den Broek, Machteld

Abstract

Considering the targets of the Paris agreement, rapid decarbonisation of the power system is needed. In order to study cost-optimal and reliable zero and negative carbon power systems, a power system model of Western Europe for 2050 is developed. Realistic future technology costs, demand levels and generator flexibility constraints are considered. The optimised portfolios are tested for both favourable and unfavourable future weather conditions using results from a global climate model, accounting for the potential impacts of climate change on Europe’s weather. The cost optimal mix for zero or negative carbon power systems consists of firm low-carbon capacity, intermittent renewable energy sources and flexibility capacity. In most scenarios, the amount of low-carbon firm capacity is around 75% of peak load, providing roughly 65% of the electricity demand. Furthermore, it is found that with a high penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources, a high dependence on cross border transmission, batteries and a shift to new types of ancillary services is required to maintain a reliable power system. Despite relatively small changes in the total generation from intermittent renewable energy sources between favourable and unfavourable weather years of 6%, emissions differ up to 70 MtCO2 yr−1 and variable systems costs up to 25%. In a highly interconnected power system with significant flexible capacity in the portfolio and minimal curtailment of intermittent renewables, the potential role of green hydrogen as a means of electricity storage appears to be limited.

Suggested Citation

  • van Zuijlen, Bas & Zappa, William & Turkenburg, Wim & van der Schrier, Gerard & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Cost-optimal reliable power generation in a deep decarbonisation future," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:253:y:2019:i:c:108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113587
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919312619
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113587?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heard, B.P. & Brook, B.W. & Wigley, T.M.L. & Bradshaw, C.J.A., 2017. "Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1122-1133.
    2. Gils, Hans Christian, 2014. "Assessment of the theoretical demand response potential in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    4. van der Wiel, K. & Stoop, L.P. & van Zuijlen, B.R.H. & Blackport, R. & van den Broek, M.A. & Selten, F.M., 2019. "Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-275.
    5. Zakeri, Behnam & Price, James & Zeyringer, Marianne & Keppo, Ilkka & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Syri, Sanna, 2018. "The direct interconnection of the UK and Nordic power market – Impact on social welfare and renewable energy integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1193-1204.
    6. Pleßmann, Guido & Blechinger, Philipp, 2017. "Outlook on South-East European power system until 2050: Least-cost decarbonization pathway meeting EU mitigation targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1041-1053.
    7. Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd & van den Broek, Machteld & Zappa, William & Turkenburg, Wim C. & Faaij, André, 2016. "Least-cost options for integrating intermittent renewables in low-carbon power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 48-74.
    8. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    9. Hilbers, Adriaan P. & Brayshaw, David J. & Gandy, Axel, 2019. "Importance subsampling: improving power system planning under climate-based uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Sabine Fuss & Josep G. Canadell & Glen P. Peters & Massimo Tavoni & Robbie M. Andrew & Philippe Ciais & Robert B. Jackson & Chris D. Jones & Florian Kraxner & Nebosja Nakicenovic & Corinne Le Quéré & , 2014. "Betting on negative emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 850-853, October.
    11. Ravestein, P. & van der Schrier, G. & Haarsma, R. & Scheele, R. & van den Broek, M., 2018. "Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to climate change and climate variability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 497-508.
    12. Lund, Peter D. & Lindgren, Juuso & Mikkola, Jani & Salpakari, Jyri, 2015. "Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 785-807.
    13. García-Gusano, Diego & Espegren, Kari & Lind, Arne & Kirkengen, Martin, 2016. "The role of the discount rates in energy systems optimisation models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 56-72.
    14. Lechtenböhmer, Stefan & Nilsson, Lars J. & Åhman, Max & Schneider, Clemens, 2016. "Decarbonising the energy intensive basic materials industry through electrification – Implications for future EU electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1623-1631.
    15. Zappa, William & van den Broek, Machteld, 2018. "Analysing the potential of integrating wind and solar power in Europe using spatial optimisation under various scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1192-1216.
    16. Welder, Lara & Ryberg, D.Severin & Kotzur, Leander & Grube, Thomas & Robinius, Martin & Stolten, Detlef, 2018. "Spatio-temporal optimization of a future energy system for power-to-hydrogen applications in Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 1130-1149.
    17. Gils, Hans Christian & Scholz, Yvonne & Pregger, Thomas & Luca de Tena, Diego & Heide, Dominik, 2017. "Integrated modelling of variable renewable energy-based power supply in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 173-188.
    18. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.
    19. Böttger, Diana & Götz, Mario & Theofilidi, Myrto & Bruckner, Thomas, 2015. "Control power provision with power-to-heat plants in systems with high shares of renewable energy sources – An illustrative analysis for Germany based on the use of electric boilers in district heatin," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 157-167.
    20. Vassilis Daioglou & Jonathan C. Doelman & Elke Stehfest & Christoph Müller & Birka Wicke & Andre Faaij & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2017. "Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 920-924, December.
    21. Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd & van den Broek, Machteld & Seebregts, Ad & Faaij, André, 2015. "Operational flexibility and economics of power plants in future low-carbon power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 107-128.
    22. Ely, Caroline R. & Brayshaw, David J. & Methven, John & Cox, James & Pearce, Oliver, 2013. "Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway Renewable power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1420-1427.
    23. Zappa, William & Junginger, Martin & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Is a 100% renewable European power system feasible by 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1027-1050.
    24. Drew, Daniel R. & Coker, Phil J. & Bloomfield, Hannah C. & Brayshaw, David J. & Barlow, Janet F. & Richards, Andrew, 2019. "Sunny windy sundays," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 870-875.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christos Agathokleous & Jimmy Ehnberg, 2020. "A Quantitative Study on the Requirement for Additional Inertia in the European Power System until 2050 and the Potential Role of Wind Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Miguel Gonzalez-Salazar & Thomas Langrock & Christoph Koch & Jana Spieß & Alexander Noack & Markus Witt & Michael Ritzau & Armin Michels, 2020. "Evaluation of Energy Transition Pathways to Phase out Coal for District Heating in Berlin," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Chi Kong Chyong & David M. Reiner & Rebecca Ly & Mathilde Fajardy, 2023. "The economic value of flexible CCS in net-zero electricity systems: the case of the UK," Working Papers EPRG2308, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    4. Chyong, Chi Kong & Reiner, David M. & Ly, Rebecca & Fajardy, Mathilde, 2023. "Economic modelling of flexible carbon capture and storage in a decarbonised electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Zappa, William & Junginger, Martin & van den Broek, Machteld, 2021. "Can liberalised electricity markets support decarbonised portfolios in line with the Paris Agreement? A case study of Central Western Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Song, Siming & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2022. "Low carbon transition of China's electric and heating sector considering reliability: A modelling and optimization approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    8. Donovin D. Lewis & Aron Patrick & Evan S. Jones & Rosemary E. Alden & Abdullah Al Hadi & Malcolm D. McCulloch & Dan M. Ionel, 2023. "Decarbonization Analysis for Thermal Generation and Regionally Integrated Large-Scale Renewables Based on Minutely Optimal Dispatch with a Kentucky Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, February.
    9. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Investigating the economics of the power sector under high penetration of variable renewable energies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    10. He, Wei & Dooner, Mark & King, Marcus & Li, Dacheng & Guo, Songshan & Wang, Jihong, 2021. "Techno-economic analysis of bulk-scale compressed air energy storage in power system decarbonisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    11. Lugovoy, Oleg & Gao, Shuo & Gao, Ji & Jiang, Kejun, 2021. "Feasibility study of China's electric power sector transition to zero emissions by 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Wang, Sarah & Tarroja, Brian & Schell, Lori Smith & Samuelsen, Scott, 2021. "Determining cost-optimal approaches for managing excess renewable electricity in decarbonized electricity systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1187-1197.
    13. Reyseliani, Nadhilah & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2021. "Pathway towards 100% renewable energy in Indonesia power system by 2050," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 305-321.
    14. Reyseliani, Nadhilah & Hidayatno, Akhmad & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2022. "Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Kan, Xiaoming & Hedenus, Fredrik & Reichenberg, Lina, 2020. "The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power – the case of Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    16. Tumiran & Lesnanto Multa Putranto & Sarjiya & Fransisco Danang Wijaya & Adi Priyanto & Ira Savitri, 2022. "Generation Expansion Planning Based on Local Renewable Energy Resources: A Case Study of the Isolated Ambon-Seram Power System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, March.
    17. Kan, Xiaoming & Reichenberg, Lina & Hedenus, Fredrik, 2021. "The impacts of the electricity demand pattern on electricity system cost and the electricity supply mix: A comprehensive modeling analysis for Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    18. Yuhji Matsuo, 2022. "Re-Defining System LCOE: Costs and Values of Power Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-39, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maeder, Mattia & Weiss, Olga & Boulouchos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Assessing the need for flexibility technologies in decarbonized power systems: A new model applied to Central Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    2. Zappa, William & Junginger, Martin & van den Broek, Machteld, 2021. "Can liberalised electricity markets support decarbonised portfolios in line with the Paris Agreement? A case study of Central Western Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Knezović, Katarina & Marinakis, Adamantios & Evrenosoglu, C.Yaman & Oudalov, Alexandre, 2021. "Role of grid and bulk storage in the integration of variable renewable energy resources: Framework for optimal operation-driven multi-period infrastructure planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Zappa, William & Junginger, Martin & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Is a 100% renewable European power system feasible by 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1027-1050.
    5. Nicholas, T.E.G. & Davis, T.P. & Federici, F. & Leland, J. & Patel, B.S. & Vincent, C. & Ward, S.H., 2021. "Re-examining the role of nuclear fusion in a renewables-based energy mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Fattahi, A. & Sijm, J. & Faaij, A., 2020. "A systemic approach to analyze integrated energy system modeling tools: A review of national models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "Low carbon electricity system for India in 2030 based on multi-objective multi-criteria assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Gabrielli, Paolo & Poluzzi, Alessandro & Kramer, Gert Jan & Spiers, Christopher & Mazzotti, Marco & Gazzani, Matteo, 2020. "Seasonal energy storage for zero-emissions multi-energy systems via underground hydrogen storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Gaure, Simen & Golombek, Rolf, 2022. "True or not true: CO2 free electricity generation is possible," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    10. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka & Dodds, Paul E., 2023. "The role of new nuclear power in the UK's net-zero emissions energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    11. Chyong, Chi Kong & Reiner, David M. & Ly, Rebecca & Fajardy, Mathilde, 2023. "Economic modelling of flexible carbon capture and storage in a decarbonised electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    12. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    13. Morales-España, Germán & Martínez-Gordón, Rafael & Sijm, Jos, 2022. "Classifying and modelling demand response in power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    14. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    15. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. Kruyt, Bert & Lehning, Michael & Kahl, Annelen, 2017. "Potential contributions of wind power to a stable and highly renewable Swiss power supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Michael Schoepf & Martin Weibelzahl & Lisa Nowka, 2018. "The Impact of Substituting Production Technologies on the Economic Demand Response Potential in Industrial Processes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-13, August.
    18. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2018. "A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1200-1219.
    19. Héctor Marañón-Ledesma & Asgeir Tomasgard, 2019. "Analyzing Demand Response in a Dynamic Capacity Expansion Model for the European Power Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-24, August.
    20. Stinner, Sebastian & Huchtemann, Kristian & Müller, Dirk, 2016. "Quantifying the operational flexibility of building energy systems with thermal energy storages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 140-154.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:253:y:2019:i:c:108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.