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Novel dynamic forecasting model for building cooling loads combining an artificial neural network and an ensemble approach

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  • Wang, Lan
  • Lee, Eric W.M.
  • Yuen, Richard K.K.

Abstract

Short-term load prediction, which forecasts a building’s thermal load with a lead time ranging from seconds to a few days, is essential for not only monitoring and controlling the system operation, but also on-line scheduling. Dynamic cooling load forecasting, which belongs to short-term load prediction, is both meaningful for monitoring the system or fuzzy on-line scheduling and crucial for solving the time-lag problem to meet the heating, ventilation and air-conditioning system’s time-varying cooling loads. Numerous studies have been carried out to develop dynamic load-forecasting models, and great achievements have been made. However, limitations in their applicability persist because most previous models are calendar- and time-based data-driven models that may fail when unexpected issues occur or special schedules are adopted. What’s more, the inputs that were selected passively from the source data pools at hand rather than via active exploration may be insufficient and impair the accuracy of forecasting models. This paper proposes a novel dynamic forecasting model for building cooling loads that combines an artificial neural network with an ensemble approach. Based on physical principles other than the available data source, the inputs are explored actively and are independent from both calendar and time indicators, which make the forecasting model being capable of dealing with irregular occasions and unexpected schedules with high accuracy. A benchmark is proposed that uses the current load Q(t) as a forecasted cooling load Q^(t+i) and gives the minimum accuracy requirement for a dynamic forecasting model. The benchmark not only can be used to evaluate dynamic forecasting models that are validated by various case studies, but also ensures that the proposed forecasting model can be applied immediately to heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems to tackle the time-lag problem.

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  • Wang, Lan & Lee, Eric W.M. & Yuen, Richard K.K., 2018. "Novel dynamic forecasting model for building cooling loads combining an artificial neural network and an ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1740-1753.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:228:y:2018:i:c:p:1740-1753
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.085
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Gao, Hao & Koch, Christian & Wu, Yupeng, 2019. "Building information modelling based building energy modelling: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 320-343.
    14. Wei Shao & Shuo Wang & Wenpu Wang & Kun Shao & Qi Xiao & Zheng Cui, 2023. "Experiment and Simulation on a Refrigeration Ventilation System for Deep Metal Mines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    15. Afroz, Zakia & Urmee, Tania & Shafiullah, G.M. & Higgins, Gary, 2018. "Real-time prediction model for indoor temperature in a commercial building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 29-53.
    16. Gautham Krishnadas & Aristides Kiprakis, 2020. "A Machine Learning Pipeline for Demand Response Capacity Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-25, April.
    17. Liu, Zhijian & Li, Yuanwei & Xu, Wei & Yin, Hang & Gao, Jun & Jin, Guangya & Lun, Liyong & Jin, Guohui, 2019. "Performance and feasibility study of hybrid ground source heat pump system assisted with cooling tower for one office building based on one Shanghai case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 28-37.
    18. Shamsi, Mohammad Haris & Ali, Usman & Mangina, Eleni & O’Donnell, James, 2021. "Feature assessment frameworks to evaluate reduced-order grey-box building energy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    19. Hesen Zuo & Wengang Zheng & Mingfei Wang & Xin Zhang, 2023. "Prediction of Heat and Cold Loads of Factory Mushroom Houses Based on EWT Decomposition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.
    20. S. M. Mahfuz Alam & Mohd. Hasan Ali, 2020. "Equation Based New Methods for Residential Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-22, December.
    21. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.

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