IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/aosoci/v109y2023ics0361368223000284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using Google searches of firm products to detect revenue management

Author

Listed:
  • Chiu, Peng-Chia
  • Teoh, Siew Hong
  • Zhang, Yinglei
  • Huang, Xuan

Abstract

We introduce a novel Big Data analytics model to detect upward revenue misreporting. The model uses freely available Google searches of firm products to provide external entity business state (EBS) evidence. The veracity of the reported numbers is enhanced when auditors can obtain external EBS evidence congruent with the reported numbers. The Google search volume index (SVI) of firm products is a good candidate for such EBS evidence because it nowcasts (i.e. predicts present) firm sales and is independent of management control. A large discrepancy such as a high sales growth together with a large decline in the SVI suggests possible manipulation upwards of revenues. We find that an indicator variable, MUP, of a firm in the top sales growth quartile and bottom ΔSVI quartile in each industry-quarter predicts revenue misstatements incrementally to the F_Score, Discretionary-Revenues model, two alternative upward revenue manipulation identifiers, and analyst and media coverages. MUP predictability is stronger in end-user industries and in interim quarters relative to the fourth quarter. We also find corroborating evidence that MUP firms have lower sales growth persistence, larger increases in accounts receivables, and lower allowances for bad debts, consistent with their lower revenue quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiu, Peng-Chia & Teoh, Siew Hong & Zhang, Yinglei & Huang, Xuan, 2023. "Using Google searches of firm products to detect revenue management," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:aosoci:v:109:y:2023:i:c:s0361368223000284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.aos.2023.101457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0361368223000284
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.aos.2023.101457?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vicki Wei Tang, 2018. "Wisdom of Crowds: Cross‐Sectional Variation in the Informativeness of Third‐Party‐Generated Product Information on Twitter," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 989-1034, June.
    2. Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(2), pages 107-120.
    3. Amir, Eli & Lev, Baruch, 1996. "Value-relevance of nonfinancial information: The wireless communications industry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 3-30, October.
    4. Huang, Jiekun, 2018. "The customer knows best: The investment value of consumer opinions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 164-182.
    5. Files, Rebecca, 2012. "SEC enforcement: Does forthright disclosure and cooperation really matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 353-374.
    6. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    7. Levent Bulut, 2018. "Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 303-315, April.
    8. Eli Bartov & Partha Mohanram & Chandrakanth Seethamraju, 2002. "Valuation of Internet Stocks—An IPO Perspective," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 321-346, May.
    9. Tanya Suhoy, 2009. "Query Indices and a 2008 Downturn: Israeli Data," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2009.06, Bank of Israel.
    10. Clive Lennox & Petro Lisowsky & Jeffrey Pittman, 2013. "Tax Aggressiveness and Accounting Fraud," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 739-778, September.
    11. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    12. Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian, 2012. "Predicting the Present with Google Trends," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 2-9, June.
    13. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    14. Atwood, T.J. & Drake, Michael S. & Myers, Linda A., 2010. "Book-tax conformity, earnings persistence and the association between earnings and future cash flows," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 111-125, May.
    15. Baber, William R. & Kang, Sok-Hyon & Kumar, Krishna R., 1998. "Accounting earnings and executive compensation:: The role of earnings persistence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 169-193, May.
    16. Simeon Vosen & Torsten Schmidt, 2011. "Forecasting private consumption: survey‐based indicators vs. Google trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 565-578, September.
    17. Michael S. Drake & Darren T. Roulstone & Jacob R. Thornock, 2012. "Investor Information Demand: Evidence from Google Searches Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 1001-1040, September.
    18. Brian J. Bushee & John E. Core & Wayne Guay & Sophia J.W. Hamm, 2010. "The Role of the Business Press as an Information Intermediary," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 1-19, March.
    19. Christina Zhu, 2019. "Big Data as a Governance Mechanism," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 2021-2061.
    20. Peecher, Mark E. & Schwartz, Rachel & Solomon, Ira, 2007. "It's all about audit quality: Perspectives on strategic-systems auditing," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 32(4-5), pages 463-485.
    21. Earley, Christine E., 2015. "Data analytics in auditing: Opportunities and challenges," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 493-500.
    22. Scott B. Jackson & Xiaotao (Kelvin) Liu, 2010. "The Allowance for Uncollectible Accounts, Conservatism, and Earnings Management," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 565-601, June.
    23. Nicholas M. Guest, 2021. "The Information Role of the Media in Earnings News," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 1021-1076, June.
    24. Palmrose, Zoe-Vonna & Richardson, Vernon J. & Scholz, Susan, 2004. "Determinants of market reactions to restatement announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 59-89, February.
    25. Joseph F. Brazel & Keith L. Jones & Mark F. Zimbelman, 2009. "Using Nonfinancial Measures to Assess Fraud Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1135-1166, December.
    26. Caylor, Marcus L., 2010. "Strategic revenue recognition to achieve earnings benchmarks," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 82-95, January.
    27. Patricia M. Dechow & Weili Ge & Chad R. Larson & Richard G. Sloan, 2011. "Predicting Material Accounting Misstatements," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 17-82, March.
    28. Hales, Jeffrey & Moon, James R. & Swenson, Laura A., 2018. "A new era of voluntary disclosure? Empirical evidence on how employee postings on social media relate to future corporate disclosures," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 88-108.
    29. Dyck, Alexander & Morse, Adair & Zingales, Luigi, 2023. "How pervasive is corporate fraud?," Working Papers 327, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    30. Della Penna, Nicolas & Huang, Haifang, 2009. "Constructing Consumer Sentiment Index for U.S. Using Google Searches," Working Papers 2009-26, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2010.
    31. Riley, Richard Jr. & Pearson, Timothy A. & Trompeter, Greg, 2003. "The value relevance of non-financial performance variables and accounting information: the case of the airline industry," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    2. Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul & Sanjiv Sabherwal & Sergiy Saydometov, 2022. "FEAR Index, city characteristics, and housing returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 173-205, March.
    3. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Siliverstovs, Boriss & Wochner, Daniel S., 2018. "Google Trends and reality: Do the proportions match?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 1-23.
    5. D’Amuri, Francesco & Marcucci, Juri, 2017. "The predictive power of Google searches in forecasting US unemployment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 801-816.
    6. Bangwayo-Skeete, Prosper F. & Skeete, Ryan W., 2015. "Can Google data improve the forecasting performance of tourist arrivals? Mixed-data sampling approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 454-464.
    7. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Konstantinos Drakos, 2021. "Nowcasting the Greek (semi‐) deposit run: Hidden uncertainty about the future currency in a Google search," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1133-1150, January.
    8. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christina Rouska, 2019. "Volatility persistence and asymmetry under the microscope: the role of information demand for gold and oil," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 180-197, February.
    9. Serhan Cevik, 2022. "Where should we go? Internet searches and tourist arrivals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4048-4057, October.
    10. Reyes, Tomas, 2018. "Limited attention and M&A announcements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 201-222.
    11. Lei, Lijun (Gillian) & Li, Yutao & Luo, Yan, 2019. "Production and dissemination of corporate information in social media: A review," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 29-43.
    12. Jacques Bughin, 2015. "Google searches and twitter mood: nowcasting telecom sales performance," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 87-105, August.
    13. Jianchun Fang & Wanshan Wu & Zhou Lu & Eunho Cho, 2019. "Using Baidu Index To Nowcast Mobile Phone Sales In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(01), pages 83-96, March.
    14. Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2014. "Nowcasting Tourist Arrivals to Prague: Google Econometrics," MPRA Paper 60945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Qian Chen & Xiang Gao & Jianming Mo & Zhouling Xu, 2022. "Market Reaction to Local Attention around Earnings Announcements in China: Evidence from Internet Search Activity," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-26, October.
    16. Chi, Tsung-Li & Liu, Hung-Tsen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2023. "Hedging performance using google Trends–Evidence from the indian forex options market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 107-123.
    17. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2020. "Disagreements in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Empirical Evidence for a Latin American Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 99-122, November.
    18. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    19. Dan Amiram & Zahn Bozanic & James D. Cox & Quentin Dupont & Jonathan M. Karpoff & Richard Sloan, 2018. "Financial reporting fraud and other forms of misconduct: a multidisciplinary review of the literature," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 732-783, June.
    20. Jaroslav Pavlicek & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2015. "Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-11, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:aosoci:v:109:y:2023:i:c:s0361368223000284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/aos .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.