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Multi-faceted impact and outcome of COVID-19 on smallholder agricultural systems: Integrating qualitative research and fuzzy cognitive mapping to explore resilient strategies

Author

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  • Goswami, Rupak
  • Roy, Kalyan
  • Dutta, Sudarshan
  • Ray, Krishnendu
  • Sarkar, Sukamal
  • Brahmachari, Koushik
  • Nanda, Manoj Kr.
  • Mainuddin, Mohammed
  • Banerjee, Hirak
  • Timsina, Jagadish
  • Majumdar, Kaushik

Abstract

The shock of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has disrupted food systems worldwide. Such disruption, affecting multiple systems interfaces in smallholder agriculture, is unprecedented and needs to be understood from multi-stakeholder perspectives. The multiple loops of causality in the pathways of impact renders the system outcomes unpredictable. Understanding the nature of such unpredictable pathways is critical to identify present and future systems intervention strategies. Our study aims to explore the multiple pathways of present and future impact created by the pandemic and “Amphan” cyclonic storm on smallholder agricultural systems. Also, we anticipate the behaviour of the systems elements under different realistic scenarios of intervention. We explored the severity and multi-faceted impacts of the pandemic on vulnerable smallholder agricultural production systems through in-depth interactions with key players at the micro-level. It provided contextual information, and revealed critical insights to understand the cascading effect of the pandemic and the cyclone on farm households. We employed thematic analysis of in-depth interviews with multiple stakeholders in Sundarbans areas in eastern India, to identify the present and future systems outcomes caused by the pandemic, and later compounded by “Amphan”. The immediate adaptation strategies of the farmers were engaging family labors, exchanging labors with neighbouring farmers, borrowing money from relatives, accessing free food rations, replacing dead livestock, early harvesting, and reclamation of waterbodies. The thematic analysis identified several systems elements, such as harvesting, marketing, labor accessibility, among others, through which the impacts of the pandemic were expressed. Drawing on these outputs, we employed Mental Modeler, a Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping tool, to develop multi-stakeholder mental models for the smallholder agricultural systems of the region. Analysis of the mental models indicated the centrality of “Kharif” (monsoon) rice production, current farm income, and investment for the next crop cycle to determine the pathways and degree of the dual impact on farm households. Current household expenditure, livestock, and soil fertility were other central elements in the shared mental model. Scenario analysis with multiple stakeholders suggested enhanced market access and current household income, sustained investment in farming, rapid improvement in affected soil, irrigation water and livestock as the most effective strategies to enhance the resilience of farm families during and after the pandemic. This study may help in formulating short and long-term intervention strategies in the post-pandemic communities, and the methodological approach can be used elsewhere to understand perturbed socioecological systems to formulate anticipatory intervention strategies based on collective wisdom of stakeholders.

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  • Goswami, Rupak & Roy, Kalyan & Dutta, Sudarshan & Ray, Krishnendu & Sarkar, Sukamal & Brahmachari, Koushik & Nanda, Manoj Kr. & Mainuddin, Mohammed & Banerjee, Hirak & Timsina, Jagadish & Majumdar, Ka, 2021. "Multi-faceted impact and outcome of COVID-19 on smallholder agricultural systems: Integrating qualitative research and fuzzy cognitive mapping to explore resilient strategies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:189:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x21000044
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103051
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    2. Cariappa, AG Adeeth & Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar & Adhav, Chaitanya Ashok & Sendhil, R. & Ramasundaram, P., 2022. "COVID-19 induced lockdown effects on agricultural commodity prices and consumer behaviour in India – Implications for food loss and waste management," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    3. Ardekani, Zahra Fozouni & Sobhani, Seyed Mohammad Javad & Barbosa, Marcelo Werneck & de Sousa, Paulo Renato, 2023. "Transition to a sustainable food supply chain during disruptions: A study on the Brazilian food companies in the Covid-19 era," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    4. Quandt, Amy, 2023. "“You have to be resilient”: Producer perspectives to navigating a changing agricultural system in California, USA," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Alexander R. Marsden & Kerstin K. Zander & Jonatan A. Lassa, 2023. "Smallholder Farming during COVID-19: A Systematic Review Concerning Impacts, Adaptations, Barriers, Policy, and Planning for Future Pandemics," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Renji Remesan & Arjun Prabhakaran & Macariush N. Sangma & Sreekanth Janardhanan & Mohammed Mainuddin & Sukanta K. Sarangi & Uttam Kumar Mandal & Dhiman Burman & Sukamal Sarkar & Kshirenda Kumar Mahant, 2021. "Modeling and Management Option Analysis for Saline Groundwater Drainage in a Deltaic Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, June.
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    8. Hemant G. Tripathi & Harriet E. Smith & Steven M. Sait & Susannah M. Sallu & Stephen Whitfield & Astrid Jankielsohn & William E. Kunin & Ndumiso Mazibuko & Bonani Nyhodo, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Diverse Farm Systems in Tanzania and South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Kamal Vatta & Shruti Bhogal & Adam S. Green & Heena Sharma & Cameron A. Petrie & Sandeep Dixit, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic-Induced Disruptions and Implications for National Food Security and Farm Incomes: Farm-Level Evidence from Indian Punjab," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, April.
    10. Celal Cevher & Bulent Altunkaynak & Meltem Gürü, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production Branches: An Investigation of Anxiety Disorders among Farmers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, May.

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