A recipe for co-management of forest and livestock — Results of bio-economic model at a village level in Iran

The ecosystem in the Zagros region of Iran, where this study was conducted, is characterized by joint occurrence of trees and grasses. Here multiple-use of forest and livestock is a common practice followed by the local people. This study develops a deterministic non-linear dynamic programming bio-economic model at a village level to analyse the possible implications of such a management regime over a period of three and a half decades into the future. Required data were obtained from field surveys and secondary sources. The model was run under four alternate management regimes represented by model scenarios. Comparison of “business as usual”, “no goat” and “no sheep” model scenarios brought out that combining forest resources and livestock will not only be mutually beneficial but will also improve villagers' welfare. The results showed that state policies, like imposing ban on goat and sheep husbandry, are important in influencing area under different land uses. Sensitivity analysis highlighted the role of economic factors, e.g., prices of milk and meat and discount rate, ecological conditions, e.g., grass productivity and fire parameters in affecting the traditional forest management, land use and local community's welfare.