Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot

Contents:

Author Info

  • Maeda, Eduardo Eiji
  • Clark, Barnaby J.F.
  • Pellikka, Petri
  • Siljander, Mika
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The Taita Hills are the northernmost part of the Eastern Arc Mountains of Kenya and Tanzania, which is one of the most important regions for biological conservation in the world. The indigenous cloud forests in this area have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. In the Taita Hills, currently only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved. In order to create effective policies to preserve the natural resources and biodiversity of the Eastern Arc Mountains it is crucial to understand the causes and interactions involved in the landscape changes in the most degraded areas. The research presented here aimed to understand the role of landscape attributes and infrastructure components as driving forces of agricultural expansion in the Taita Hills. Geospatial technology tools and a landscape dynamic simulation model were integrated to identify and evaluate the driving forces of agricultural expansion and simulate future landscape scenarios. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Agricultural expansion will likely take place predominantly in lowlands and foothills throughout the next 20Â years, increasing the spatial dependence on distance to rivers and other water bodies. The main factors driving the spatial distribution of new croplands were the distance to markets, proximity to already established agricultural areas and distance to roads. Other driving forces of the agricultural expansion, as well as their implications for natural resources conservation, are discussed. Further studies are necessary to integrate the effects of population pressure and climate change on the sustainability and characteristics of local agricultural systems.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T3W-50TJP50-2/2/6a95f64413788f8da9bd890982c390f4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.

    Volume (Year): 103 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 9 (November)
    Pages: 609-620

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:9:p:609-620

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy

    Related research

    Keywords: Land use change Simulation model Eastern Arc Mountains Taita Hills;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Thornton, Philip K. & Jones, Peter G. & Alagarswamy, Gopal & Andresen, Jeff & Herrero, Mario, 2010. "Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 73-82, February.
    2. Eric Koomen & Piet Rietveld & Ton Nijs, 2008. "Modelling land-use change for spatial planning support," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-10, March.
    3. Washington-Ottombre, C. & Pijanowski, B. & Campbell, D. & Olson, J. & Maitima, J. & Musili, A. & Kibaki, T. & Kaburu, H. & Hayombe, P. & Owango, E. & Irigia, B. & Gichere, S. & Mwangi, A., 2010. "Using a role-playing game to inform the development of land-use models for the study of a complex socio-ecological system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 117-126, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:9:p:609-620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.