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Risk Analysis of Firm Energy Coverage in Colombia in the Medium Term

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Moreno

    (Departamento de Energ tica y Mec nica, Universidad Aut noma de Occidente, Calle 25 # 115-85 Km 2 V a Cali-Jamund , Colombia,)

  • Sergio A. Cantillo

    (Departamento de Energ tica y Mec nica, Universidad Aut noma de Occidente, Calle 25 # 115-85 Km 2 V a Cali-Jamund , Colombia,)

  • Lilian A. Carrillo-Rodriguez

    (Departamento de Ciencias Sociales y Econ micas, Universidad Aut noma de Occidente, Calle 25 # 115-85 Km 2 V a Cali-Jamund , Colombia.)

Abstract

The recent auction of firm energy and the decisions on medium-term coverage give rise to risks in the supply of electricity in Colombia in the coming periods. Taking into account the possible risks that may arise, such as: non-compliance with FEO due to generation units (six (6) non-compliances during 2015-2016 term), the delay of generation projects with committed firm energy (Hidroituango case) and the availability of firm energy in the market, imply a systemic risk for the electric power supply in the medium term. Through the study of technical documents and resolutions, issued by the CREG, about the medium term energy balances in 2018, firm energy supply and demand balances were reconstructed, including the results of the last FEO auction carried out in the first quarter of 2019, in order to carry out a risk analysis based on these same scenarios. It was observed that the amount of FEO auctioned exceeds the quantity of demand projected, meaning that the CREG assumed a conservative position by purchasing more energy than necessary (8650 GWh-year and 1027 GWh-year respectively), this is a situation that has occurred on more than one occasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Moreno & Sergio A. Cantillo & Lilian A. Carrillo-Rodriguez, 2021. "Risk Analysis of Firm Energy Coverage in Colombia in the Medium Term," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 220-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-02-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge Barrientos Mar n & Fernando Villada, 2020. "Regionalized Discount Rate to Evaluate Renewable Energy Projects in Colombia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 332-336.
    2. Arias-Gaviria, Jessica & Carvajal-Quintero, Sandra Ximena & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago, 2019. "Understanding dynamics and policy for renewable energy diffusion in Colombia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1111-1119.
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    Cited by:

    1. A.M. Ramirez-Tovar & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Renata Moreno-Quintero, 2022. "Land-use in the Electric Colombian System: Hidden Impacts and Risks of Large-scale Renewable Projects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 127-134, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reliability Charge; Firm Energy; Firm Energy Obligation; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L78 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Government Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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