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Assessing the Future of Energy Security in Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Baher Mohamed Atlam

    (Faculty of Economic and Political Science, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt)

  • Asmaa Melegy Rapiea

    (Center of Economic Forecasting and Planning Technique, National Planning Institute, Cairo, Egypt.)

Abstract

This research aims to study the future of energy security in Egypt using system dynamics approach. To achieve this objective, seven scenarios have been simulated for the period 2007-2030. The simulation results showed that, keeping other polices constant, raising the growth rate of new discoveries of oil and natural gas is the most effective policy for improving the future of energy security in Egypt, followed by removing energy subsidy and paying more investments in new and renewable energy respectively. In addition, targeting high economic growth rate is expected to have a negative effect on the future of energy security in Egypt, if it is not accompanied with more investments for increasing energy resources. On the other hand, the results showed that to improve energy security level and achieve sustainable economic development, a set of policies have to be adopted simultaneously to increase energy resources as well as rationalize energy consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Baher Mohamed Atlam & Asmaa Melegy Rapiea, 2016. "Assessing the Future of Energy Security in Egypt," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 684-700.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-04-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    3. Doaa Akl Ahmed & Amira Akl Ahmed, 2019. "The Impact of Energy Prices on Electricity Production in Egypt," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 194-206.
    4. Hongyun, Han & Radwan, Amira, 2021. "Economic and social structure and electricity consumption in Egypt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Security; Energy Forecasting; Simulation Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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