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Modeling of the Dynamics Relationship between World Crude Oil Prices and the Stock Market in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Pasrun Adam

    (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kampus Bumi Tridharma Anduonohu, Kendari, Indonesia,)

  • Usman Rianse

    (Department of Socio-economics of Agriculture, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kampus Bumi Tridharma Anduonohu, Kendari, Indonesia,)

  • Edi Cahyono

    (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kampus Bumi Tridharma Anduonohu, Kendari, Indonesia,)

  • Manat Rahim

    (Department of Economics and Development Studies, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kampus Bumi Tridharma Anduonohu, Kendari, Indonesia.)

Abstract

This study aims to examine the dynamics of the relationship between world crude oil prices and Indonesian stock market within the period of January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2013. The world crude oil prices referred to the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, whereas the composite indexes at the Indonesian Stock Exchange were used as indicators of the stock market in Indonesia. Daily data were analyzed by employing the LVAR causal model. The test results showed that there was a significant dynamical relationship between world crude oil prices and Indonesian composite index, both in the long-term and in the short-term. The dynamics of this relationship is positive, meaning that if the world crude oil price rises (falls), then the composite index also rises (falls). This finding is in the need for Indonesian government to be considered in their economic policy, as well as for investors to manage their investment portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Pasrun Adam & Usman Rianse & Edi Cahyono & Manat Rahim, 2015. "Modeling of the Dynamics Relationship between World Crude Oil Prices and the Stock Market in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 550-557.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2015-02-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Syafrida Hani & Elizar Sinambela, 2021. "Indonesia s Bank Response of Interest Rates to the Prices of World Crude Oil and Foreign Rates of Interest," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 558-564.
    2. Pasrun Adam & Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd Aziz Muthalib, 2017. "A Model of the Dynamic of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Indonesia's Export," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 255-261.
    3. AIGHEYISI Oziengbe Scott, 2018. "Oil Price Volatility And Business Cycles In Nigeria," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(2), pages 31-40, August.
    4. Heppi Millia & Pasrun Adam & Zainuddin Saenong & Muh. Yani Balaka & Yuwanda Purnamasari Pasrun & La Ode Saidi & Wali Aya Rumbia, 2020. "The Influence of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Exchange Rate on the Number of Foreign Tourist Arrivals in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 280-287.
    5. Venkata Sai Srinivasa Rao Muramalla & Hassan Ali Alqahtani, 2020. "Long Run Association of Oil Prices and Stock Prices: A Case of Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 593-600.
    6. Nenubari John Ikue & Lamin Mohammed Magaji & Samuel Zeb-Omoni & Mohammed, Aminu Usman & Joseph Osaro Denwi, 2021. "Trade Balance and Oil Shocks in African Oil Exporting Countries: A Panel Threshold Regression," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 150-166, October.
    7. Dipesh Karki & Hari Gopal Risal, 2019. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation: Evidence from Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 31(1), pages 21-46, April.
    8. Pasrun Adam, 2016. "The Response of Bank of Indonesia s Interest Rates to the Prices of World Crude Oil and Foreign Interest Rates," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 266-272.
    9. Darmawan, Indra & Siregar, Hermanto & Hakim, Dedi B. & Manurung, Adler H., 2021. "Crude Oil Price Movement and Stock Market Trading Activity: Evidence from Indonesia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(1), pages 25-46.
    10. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korecek, 2018. "The Crude Oil Price and Speculations: Investigation Using Granger Causality Test," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-282.
    11. Wali Aya Rumbia & Abd Azis Muthalib & Bakhtiar Abbas & Pasrun Adam & Heppi Millia & La Ode Saidi & Muh. Irfandy Azis, 2020. "Crude Oil Prices, Household Spending and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-4 Region: An Analysis of Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 437-442.
    12. La Ode Saidi & Hasan Aedy & Fajar Saranani & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Pasrun Adam & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2020. "Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate: An Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect and Volatility Using the Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and General Autoregressive Conditional Heterochedasticity in ," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 104-108.
    13. La Saidi & Pasrun Adam & Rostin & Zainuddin Saenong & Muh. Yani Balaka & Gamsir & Asmuddin & Salwiah, 2017. "The Effect of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 527-533.
    14. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    15. Sheevun Di O. Guliman, 2015. "Oil Prices and Stock Market: A Philippine Perspective," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 122-135, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Crude Oil Price; Stock Price; LVAR Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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