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Inspecting The Mechanism: Closed-Form Solutions For Asset Prices In Real Business Cycle Models

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  • Martin Lettau

Abstract

We derive closed-form solutions for asset prices in an RBC economy. The equations are based on a log-linear solution of the RBC model and allow a clearer understanding of the determination of risk premia in models with production. We demonstrate not only why the premium of equity over the risk-free rate is small but also why the premium of equity over a real long-term bond is small and often negative. In particular, risk premia for equity and long real bonds are negative when technology shocks are permanent. Copyright 2003 Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Lettau, 2003. "Inspecting The Mechanism: Closed-Form Solutions For Asset Prices In Real Business Cycle Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 550-575, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:113:y:2003:i:489:p:550-575
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
    2. Johannes K. Dreyer & Johannes Schneider & William T. Smith, 2020. "Saving-Based Asset Pricing and Leisure," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 21(2), pages 507-526, November.
    3. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Risk premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1557-1576, September.
    4. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    5. Volker Böhm & Tomoo Kikuchi & George Vachadze, 2008. "Asset Pricing and Productivity Growth: The Role of Consumption Scenarios," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 163-181, September.
    6. De Paoli, Bianca & Scott, Alasdair & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2056-2073, October.
    7. Andrew Y. Chen, 2014. "Precautionary Volatility and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Alessandro Cantelmo, 2022. "Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 473-496, June.
    9. Gary S. Anderson, 2018. "Reliably Computing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Model Solutions: An Algorithm with Error Formulas," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Addessi, William & Busato, Francesco, 2009. "Fair wages, labor relations and asset returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 410-430, December.
    11. Stefano d’Addona & Christos Giannikos, 2014. "Asset pricing and the role of macroeconomic volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 197-215, May.
    12. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2021. "Risk Premiums, Nominal Rigidities, and Limited Asset Market Participation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1899-1921, October.
    13. Claudio Campanale, 2011. "Learning, Ambiguity and Life-Cycle Portfolio Allocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 339-367, April.
    14. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2018. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy, 2007. "Mind your ps and qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 275-281, August.
    16. Lars-Alexander Kuehn, 2007. "Time-to-Build and Asset Prices," 2007 Meeting Papers 1015, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Limited Risk Sharing and Heterogeneous Agents," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 415-448, January.
    18. Viola Angelini & Peter Simmons, "undated". "Housing Debt and Consumption," Discussion Papers 11/20, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. Valery Polkovnichenko & Alexander Michaelides & Francisco Gomes, 2007. "Fiscal Policy, Asset Pricing and Economic Activity in a Savers-Spenders Economy," 2007 Meeting Papers 191, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "The Equity Premium in a DSGE Model with Limited Asset Market Participation," Working Papers 275, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
    21. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Borja Larrain, 2016. "What Moves Investment Growth?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1613-1653, December.
    22. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2023. "Numerical stability analysis of linear DSGE models: Backward errors, forward errors and condition numbers," IMFS Working Paper Series 193, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    23. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
    24. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2021. "On the accuracy of linear DSGE solution methods and the consequences for log-normal asset pricing," IMFS Working Paper Series 154, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    25. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Huang, Dayong, 2010. "Technology prospects and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 39-53, January.

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