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COVID-19 and non-performing loans: lessons from past crises

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  • Ratnovski, Lev

Abstract

During crises, the number of loans that cannot be paid back increases. What are the lessons from past crises for non-performing loan resolution after COVID-19? In this article we use a new database covering non-performing loans (NPLs) in 88 banking crises since 1990 to find out. The data show that dealing with NPLs is critical to economic recovery. Compared with the 2008 crisis, some factors are conducive to NPL resolution this time: banks have higher capital, the forward-looking IFRS 9 accounting standards can help NPL recognition, and the COVID-19 crisis was not preceded by a credit boom. However, other factors could make NPL resolution more challenging: government debt is substantially higher, banks are less profitable, and corporate balance sheets are often weak. JEL Classification: E52, E61, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Ratnovski, Lev, 2020. "COVID-19 and non-performing loans: lessons from past crises," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 71.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2020:0071:
    Note: 3402164
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Anil Ari & Sophia Chen & Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2019. "The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/272, International Monetary Fund.
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    6. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler & Jose M Garrido & Ms. Anna Ilyina & Andreas Jobst & Mr. Kenneth H Kang & Dmitriy Kovtun & Ms. Yan Liu & Mr. Dermot Monaghan & Ms. Marina Moretti, 2015. "A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/019, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Grodzicki, Maciej & Laliotis, Dimitrios & Leber, Miha & Martin, Reiner & O’Brien, Edward & Zboromirski, Piotr, 2015. "Resolving the Legacy of Non-Performing Exposures in Euro Area Banks," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    8. Shekhar Aiyar & Wolfgang Bergthaler & Jose M Garrido & Anna Ilyina & Andreas Jobst & Kenneth H Kang & Dmitriy Kovtun & Yan Liu & Dermot Monaghan & Marina Moretti, 2015. "A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/19, International Monetary Fund.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic policy > Business support

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    2. Zbigniew Korzeb & Paweł Niedziółka, 2021. "Determinants of Differentiation of Cost of Risk (CoR) among Polish Banks during COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2020. "Systemic risk: The impact of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    4. Sugandi, Eric Alexander, 2020. "Indonesia’s Financial Markets and Monetary Policy Dynamics Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1198, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Ren, Rui & Lu, Meng-Jou & Li, Yingxing & Härdle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Financial Risk Meter based on expectiles," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-008, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    6. Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2022. "Systemic risk, Islamic banks, and the COVID-19 pandemic: An empirical investigation," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    7. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Financial regulation and bank supervision during a pandemic," MPRA Paper 105887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Molnár, György & Berlinger, Edina & Dobránszky-Bartus, Katalin, 2021. "Lejárt tartozások fogságában [Overdue debt as a poverty trap]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 709-735.
    9. Armando Silva & Zbigniew Korzeb & Pawe? Niedzió?ka, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Portuguese banking system. Linear ordering method," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 37(159), pages 226-241, June.
    10. Bacchiocchi, Andrea & Bischi, Gian Italo & Giombini, Germana, 2022. "Non-performing loans, expectations and banking stability: A dynamic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; COVID-19; Financial crisis; Macroprudential policy; Non-performing loans; Post-crisis recovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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