IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-23-00473.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate policy uncertainty and US industry stock returns: A quantile regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Pijourlet

    (Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on US industry stock returns. We document heterogenous impacts of CPU on monthly returns of ten US industries. We find that CPU impacts negatively consumer staples, energy, industrials, financials, and real estate stock returns, but has a positive influence on consumer discretionary and technology stock returns. Our quantile regressions also show that the effect of CPU depends on market conditions. More precisely, higher CPU leads to lower basic materials, consumer staples, real estate and industrials returns in bullish markets, but to higher basic materials and technology returns in bearish markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Pijourlet, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and US industry stock returns: A quantile regression approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 182-189.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-23-00473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2024/Volume44/EB-24-V44-I1-P16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Azimli, Asil, 2023. "The impact of climate policy uncertainty on firm value: Does corporate social responsibility engagement matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Ströbel, Johannes & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2021. "What do you think about climate finance?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Simon Dietz & Alex Bowen & Charlie Dixon & Philip Gradwell, 2016. "‘Climate value at risk’ of global financial assets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 676-679, July.
    5. Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The structure and degree of dependence: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 786-798.
    6. Das, Debojyoti & Dutta, Anupam, 2020. "Bitcoin’s energy consumption: Is it the Achilles heel to miner’s revenue?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    7. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & de Bruin, Anne, 2020. "Energy commodity uncertainties and the systematic risk of US industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    10. Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Chan, Kam Fong & Malik, Ihtisham, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    11. Boungou, Whelsy & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Climate change-related risks and bank stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    12. Bouri, Elie & Iqbal, Najaf & Klein, Tony, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and the price dynamics of green and brown energy stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    13. Guo, Peng & Zhu, Huiming & You, Wanhai, 2018. "Asymmetric dependence between economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in G7 and BRIC: A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 251-258.
    14. Azimli, Asil, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on the degree of dependence and structure of risk-return relationship: A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    15. Yu, Honghai & Fang, Libing & Du, Donglei & Yan, Panpan, 2017. "How EPU drives long-term industry beta," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 249-258.
    16. Huiming Zhu & Rui Huang & Ningli Wang & Liya Hau, 2020. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for commodity market in China? Evidence from quantile regression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(21), pages 2292-2308, May.
    17. He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and the stock return predictability of the oil industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Huynh, Thanh D. & Xia, Ying, 2021. "Climate Change News Risk and Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(6), pages 1985-2009, September.
    19. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Jihong & Liu, Hong, 2023. "The time-varying impact of uncertainty on oil market fear: Does climate policy uncertainty matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Chan, Kam Fong & Malik, Ihtisham, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    3. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Yiwen & Ren, Yinghua & Xing, Zhanming & Hau, Liya, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and dependence structure between crude oil, EPU and Chinese industry stock: Evidence from multiscale quantile perspectives," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Weiyan & Hau, Liya & Chen, Qitong, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness of crude oil, economic policy uncertainty and Chinese commodity markets: Evidence from rolling window analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Hao Dong & Tao Li, 2023. "Climate Economics and Finance: A Literature Review," Climate Economics and Finance, Anser Press, vol. 1(1), pages 29-45, November.
    7. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Xia, Tongshui & Yao, Chen-Xi & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2020. "Dynamic and frequency-domain spillover among economic policy uncertainty, stock and housing markets in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    14. Donato Masciandaro & Riccardo Russo, 2022. "Central Banks and Climate Policy: Unpleasant Trade–Offs? A Principal–Agent Approach," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22181, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    16. Aslam, Faheem & Zil-e-huma, & Bibi, Rashida & Ferreira, Paulo, 2022. "Cross-correlations between economic policy uncertainty and precious and industrial metals: A multifractal cross-correlation analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Wang, Chih-Wei & Wu, Yu-Ching & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Huang, Po-Hsiang & Lin, Meng-Chieh, 2022. "Does green bond issuance have an impact on climate risk concerns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J.-P., 2022. "Required Capital for Long-Run Risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Egemen Eren & Floortje Merten & Niek Verhoeven, 2022. "Pricing of climate risks in financial markets: a summary of the literature," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 130.
    20. Debojyoti Das & M Kannadhasan & Malay Bhattacharyya, 2020. "Oil price shocks and emerging stock markets revisited," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(6), pages 1583-1614, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Policy Uncertainty; Industry Stock Returns; Quantile Regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-23-00473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.