IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-20-00745.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impacts of Energy Sanctions on the Black-Market Premium: Evidence from Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Omid Zamani

    (Thünen Institute of Market Analysis & Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel)

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

    (Philipps-Universität Marburg, Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS))

  • Jens-Peter Loy

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics, Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel)

  • Majid Einian

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of Iran)

Abstract

This study extends the literature by analyzing the effects of energy sanctions on the black-market premium on the Iranian Rial – U.S. dollar exchange rate. Using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model from 1959 to 2017, we find that falling oil revenues as a result of sanctions have an increasing impact on the black-market premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Omid Zamani & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Jens-Peter Loy & Majid Einian, 2021. "The Impacts of Energy Sanctions on the Black-Market Premium: Evidence from Iran," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 432-443.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00745
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2021/Volume41/EB-21-V41-I2-P38.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2009. "Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 489-507, December.
    2. Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
    3. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    4. Biswas, Amit K. & Marjit, Sugata, 2007. "Preferential trade and mis-invoicing: Some analytical implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 130-138.
    5. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    6. Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Smuggling around the world: evidence from a structural equation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3047-3064, August.
    7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    8. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Peter A G van Bergeijk, 2013. "Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(6), pages 721-736, November.
    9. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
    10. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sahar Bahmani, 2015. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the Demand for Money in Iran," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 381-391.
    12. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Raeisian Parvari, Mozhgan, 2014. "Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and international oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 364-372.
    13. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    14. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Bernd Hayo, 2019. "Sanctions and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from Iranian provinces," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 501-505, March.
    15. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Pooya Alaedini (ed.), 2016. "Economic Welfare and Inequality in Iran," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-95025-6.
    16. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Habibpour, Mohammad Mahdi, 2017. "Resource rents distribution, income inequality and poverty in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 35-42.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    18. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tankui, Altin, 2008. "The black market exchange rate vs. the official rate in testing PPP: Which rate fosters the adjustment process?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 40-43, April.
    19. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    20. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    21. Ishak, Phoebe W. & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2020. "The impact of declining oil rents on tax revenues: Does the shadow economy matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    22. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2007. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (hardcover)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4075, January.
    23. Robin C. Sickles & William C. Horrace (ed.), 2014. "Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4899-8008-3, November.
    24. Sajjad F. Dizaji & Mohammad R. Farzanegan, 2021. "Do Sanctions Constrain Military Spending of Iran?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 125-150, February.
    25. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2019. "The Effects of International Sanctions on Military Spending of Iran: A Synthetic Control Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7937, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hans Philipp Hofmann, 2021. "An Old Plug and a New Virus: Effect of Public Corruption on the Covid-19 Immunization Progress," CESifo Working Paper Series 9307, CESifo.
    2. Iman Cheratian & Saleh Goltabar & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Survival Strategies Under Sanctions: Firm-Level Evidence from Iran," Working Papers 1569, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Aug 2022.
    3. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2024. "The Impact of US Trade Sanctions on the Global Trade of Target Countries: Do the Political Institutions of the Targets Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10910, CESifo.
    4. Ge Gao & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 183-203, December.
    5. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2024. "The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 24-43, January.
    6. Armin Razmjoo & Arezoo Ghazanfari & Poul Alberg Østergaard & Sepideh Abedi, 2023. "Design and Analysis of Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems for Sustainable Development of Remote Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Pooya Alaedini & Khayyam Azizimehr, 2017. "Middle Class in Iran: Oil Rents, Modernization, and Political Development," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201756, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Hassan, Mai & Badreldin, Ahmed Mohamed, 2020. "Economic liberalization in Egypt: A way to reduce the shadow economy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 307-327.
    3. Dario Laudati & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2023. "Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 271-294, April.
    4. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Tim Krieger, 2018. "Oil Rents Shocks and Inequality in Iran," CESifo Working Paper Series 6876, CESifo.
    5. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mai Hassan, 2017. "The impact of economic globalization on the shadow economy in Egypt," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201718, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mohammad Mohammadikhabbazan & Hossein Sadeghi, 2015. "Effect of Oil Sanctions on the Macroeconomic and Household Welfare in Iran: New Evidence from a CGE Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201507, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Tim Krieger, 2018. "Oil Revenues Shocks and Inequality in Iran," Working Papers 1226, Economic Research Forum, revised 18 Sep 2018.
    8. Sajjad F. Dizaji & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Alireza Naghavi, 2016. "Political institutions and government spending behavior: theory and evidence from Iran," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 522-549, June.
    9. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2019. "Trade openness, political institutions, and military spending (evidence from lifting Iran’s sanctions)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 2013-2041, December.
    10. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Tim Krieger, 2017. "The response of income inequality to positive oil rents shocks in Iran: Implications for the post-sanction period," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201733, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Raeisian Parvari, Mozhgan, 2014. "Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and international oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 364-372.
    12. Ishak, Phoebe W. & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2020. "The impact of declining oil rents on tax revenues: Does the shadow economy matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Habibpour, Mohammad Mahdi, 2017. "Resource rents distribution, income inequality and poverty in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 35-42.
    14. Sajjad. F. Dizaji & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2018. "Do sanctions reduce the military spending in Iran?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201831, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
    16. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2014. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201403, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    18. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 247-269, June.
    19. Kentaka Aruga, 2021. "Changes in Human Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Tokyo Fuel Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-12, April.
    20. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2023. "Does Oil Corrupt? Evidence from a Multivariate VAR in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202321, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Shocks; Sanction; Iran; Black-Market Premium; NARDL.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.