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Unemployment, poverty and police performance: an ARDL analysis of crime in São Paulo

Author

Listed:
  • Tauã Vital

    (Federal University of Juiz de Fora - UFJF, Brazil)

  • Daniel Morais De Souza

    (Federal University of Juiz de Fora - UFJF, Brazil)

  • Jessica Faciroli

    (Federal University of Juiz de Fora - UFJF, Brazil)

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to determine which factors are related to the reduction of crime rates in the city of São Paulo in the last decades. This article presents and tests hypotheses of how São Paulo's decline in crime rate is linked to economic and social conditions and improved police performance. For empirical purposes, we focus on a single unitary space - the city of São Paulo - to avoid the risk of spatial dependence already identified in many crime studies. We use an autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration structure. The results presented in our article point to a different solution to fight crime, public policies that encourage the labor market are more difficult in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Tauã Vital & Daniel Morais De Souza & Jessica Faciroli, 2020. "Unemployment, poverty and police performance: an ARDL analysis of crime in São Paulo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 128-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-19-00970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crime; ARDL; police; public policies; labor market.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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