Testing the effects of crime on the Italian economy
AbstractThis paper aims at assessing the causal and temporal relationships between crime and the economic indicators related to the aggregated demand function. The case study is Italy and a quarterly frequency is used (1981:1-2005:4). A Vector Autoregressive Correction Mechanism (VECM) is employed after having assessed the integration and cointegration status of the variables under investigation. Long and short run dynamics are estimated. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main findings are that, in the short run, crime positively effects GDP and government expenditure, while has a crowding out effect on exports. In the long run, crime positively leads imports and inflation, whereas negatively investments and government expenditure.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Crime; aggregated demand; short and long run dynamics; Granger causality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
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- Biagi, Bianca & Brandano, Maria Giovanna & Detotto, Claudio, 2012.
"The effect of tourism on crime in Italy: A dynamic panel approach,"
Economics Discussion Papers
2012-4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Biagi, Bianca & Brandono, Maria Giovanna & Detotto, Claudio, 2012. "The effect of tourism on crime in Italy: A dynamic panel approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(25), pages 1-24.
- B. Biagi & MG. Brandano & C. Detotto, 2012. "The effect of tourism on crime in Italy: a dynamic panel approach," Working Paper CRENoS 201201, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
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