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The Long-Run of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Japan

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  • Dara Long

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    (The Pennslyvnia State University and Osaka University)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the validity of both the short-run and long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypotheses in the case of the Yen-Dollar exchange rate using two estimation methods, namely, a unit root test and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test. Some important findings are obtained from our analysis. The first test reveals the mean reversion of real exchange rate (RER) in the long-run. From the second test, we found that there is a strongly robust long-run PPP relationship but only weakly significant short-run PPP relationship. Furthermore, unlike the previous literature, we use CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests and rolling estimations to deal with the problems of structural breaks and power of the test respectively. Overall, the results suggest that PPP hypothesis in the case of Yen-Dollar exchange rate strongly holds in the long-run but weakly in the short-run. Finally, our results suggest that a minimum of 30 years of sample be a benchmark required for long-run PPP to hold for the case of Japan.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 32-54

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00225

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    Related research

    Keywords: PPP; Real Exchange Rate; Unit Root; ARDL to cointegration;

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    References

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    1. Long, Dara & Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2008. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 9822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
    3. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December.
    4. Taylor, Alan M & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Christian J & Papell, David H, 2005. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 361-69, April.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Taufiq Choudhry, 2005. "Asian Currency Crisis and the Generalized PPP: Evidence from the Far East," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 137-157, 06.
    8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
    10. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    11. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
    12. Layton, Allan P. & Stark, Jonathan P., 1990. "Co-integration as an empirical test of purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 125-136.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:31:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
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