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Effects of international gold market on stock exchange volatility: evidence from asean emerging stock markets

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Author Info

  • Giam Quang Do

    ()
    (Chiangmai University and Hanoi University of Agriculture)

  • Michael Mcaleer

    ()
    (Erasmus University Rotterdam and National Chung Hsing University)

  • Songsak Sriboonchitta

    ()
    (Chiangmai University)

Abstract

This paper examines behaviors of returns and volatility of ASEAN emerging stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam), incorporating with the effects from the international gold market. The estimates of GARCH(1,1) and GJR(1,1) for these stock markets indicate that the GJR(1,1) model is preferred to GARCH(1,1), except Vietnam. However, under the exogenous effects from international gold market such as the 1 day lagged returns and the 1 day lagged volatility of gold, the GARCH(1,1)-X model captures better stock market volatility behavior than GJR(1,1)-X, except Indonesia. Interestingly, gold could be a substitute commodity for stocks in Vietnam and the Philippines, while it could be a complement for stocks in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 599-610

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00065

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Related research

Keywords: Volatility; GARCH-X; Gold effects; ASEAN emerging stock markets;

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References

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  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  3. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  4. Jeantheau, Thierry, 1998. "Strong Consistency Of Estimators For Multivariate Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 70-86, February.
  5. Solt, Michael E & Swanson, Paul J, 1981. "On the Efficiency of the Markets for Gold and Silver," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 453-78, July.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  7. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
  8. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Wo-Chiang Lee & Hui-Na Lin, 2012. "Threshold effects in the relationships between USD and gold futures by panel smooth transition approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1065-1070, July.
  2. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Testing for causality between the gold return and stock market performance: evidence for ‘gold investment in case of emergency’," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 27-40, January.

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