IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eac/articl/01-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling and Forecasting Pakistan´s Inflaction by Using Time Series Arima Models

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Abdus Salam

    (State Bank of Pakistan.)

  • Shazia Salam

    (Goverment Girls College Dargai. Pakistan.)

  • Mete Feridun

    (Cyprus International University. Nicosia,Cyprus.)

Abstract

This study attempts to outline the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Pakistan’s inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. On the basis of in-sample and out-of-sample forecast it can be concluded that the model has sufficient predictive powers and the findings are well in line with those of other studies. Further, in this study, the main focus is to forecast the monthly inflation on short-term basis, for this purpose, different ARIMA models are used and the candid model is proposed. On the basis of various diagnostic and selection & evaluation criteria the best and accurate model is selected for the short term forecasting of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Abdus Salam & Shazia Salam & Mete Feridun, 2007. "Modeling and Forecasting Pakistan´s Inflaction by Using Time Series Arima Models," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 6, pages 1-10, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eac:articl:01/06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unagaliciamoderna.com/eawp/coldata/upload/Pakistans%20Inflaction_Arima%20Model.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Tylecote, 1981. "The Causes of the Present Inflation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-06416-8.
    2. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Winters,L. Alan & Sapsford,David (ed.), 1990. "Primary Commodity Prices," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521385503.
    4. Stockton, David J & Glassman, James E, 1987. "An Evaluation of the Forecast Performance of Alternative Models of Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 108-117, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zafar, Raja Fawad & Qayyum, Abdul & Ghouri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation using Functional Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 67208, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ntebogang Dinah Moroke, 2014. "The robustness and accuracy of Box-Jenkins ARIMA in modeling and forecasting household debt in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(9), pages 748-759.
    2. Javed Farhan & Ghim Ping Ong, 2018. "Forecasting seasonal container throughput at international ports using SARIMA models," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(1), pages 131-148, March.
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    4. Zafar, Raja Fawad & Qayyum, Abdul & Ghouri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation using Functional Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 67208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gatt, William, 2013. "Forecasting inflation at the Central Bank of Malta�," MPRA Paper 56876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan, 2008. "Reforming Aid: Toward More Predictable, Performance-Based Financing for Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2067-2081, October.
    7. Tylecote, Andrew & Hirata, Mitsuhiro, 1993. "Technological Innovation and Performance Pressures in Europe and Japan," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 28(1), pages 61-76, December.
    8. Fofana, Abdulai & Toma, Luiza & Moran, Dominic & Gunn, George J. & Stott, Alistair W., 2009. "Measuring the economic benefits and costs of Bluetongue virus outbreak and control strategies in Scotland," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30 - April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51052, Agricultural Economics Society.
    9. Abdullah Ghazo, 2021. "Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 70-77, May.
    10. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    11. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    12. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
    13. Johannes Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2018. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(2), pages 197-230, June.
    14. Yash P. Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    15. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    16. KUMAR Manoj & ANAND Madhu, 2014. "An Application Of Time Series Arima Forecasting Model For Predicting Sugarcane Production In India," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 81-94, April.
    17. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "A Statistical Measure Of Core Inflation," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/99, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1325-1353, November.
    19. Palaskas, Theodosios B. & Varangis, Panos N., 1991. "Is there excess co-movement of primary commodity prices? A co-integration test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 758, The World Bank.
    20. Tamerlan Mashadihasanli, 2022. "Stock Market Price Forecasting Using the Arima Model: an Application to Istanbul, Turkiye," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 439-454, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eac:articl:01/06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jose González Seoane (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cecorea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.