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Output Growth and Monetary Policy Interaction in a Common Monetary Area: Forecasting with VEC Models in Namibia, Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland, 1981-2004

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  • Khamfula, Y.

Abstract

In this study, we empirically attempt to investigate output growth forecasts as a result of dynamic interplay between money supplies and output growths of Southern African Common Monetary Area (SACMA) countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). In general, the results show that the forecasts for output growths in SACMA countries are quite similar to the actual values. Generally, the money supply changes have had a positive effect on output growths in all these SACMA countries. This may suggest that symmetric monetary shocks dominate in SACMA economies, which is a good indicator for an optimal currency area that would foster development in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Khamfula, Y., 2006. "Output Growth and Monetary Policy Interaction in a Common Monetary Area: Forecasting with VEC Models in Namibia, Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland, 1981-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:2_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. AYE & Rangan GUPTA, 2012. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Real Farm Prices In South Africa," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1), pages 147-158.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common monetary area; Multivariate dynamic forecasts; Output growth; Money supply; Cointegration; Vector Error correction model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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