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Welfare Cost Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy Shocks

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  • Evans, Lynne
  • Kenc, Turalay
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    Abstract

    This paper provides estimates of the welfare cost of volatility attributable to monetary and fiscal policy shocks. It uses a continuous-time stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model based on a recursive utility function that disentangles risk aversion from intertemporal substitution. We find that monetary and fiscal policy shocks may lead to opposite welfare effects: negative for monetary growth shocks, but positive for government expenditure shocks. Furthermore, we find that welfare costs are sensitive to the parameter values chosen for risk aversion and intertemporal substitution, and we conclude that welfare costs are potentially much larger than that found by Lucas, forcing some modification of the policy conclusions associated with Lucas s pioneering work.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 02 (April)
    Pages: 212-238

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    Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:7:y:2003:i:02:p:212-238_01

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    Cited by:
    1. Klaus Wälde, 2009. "Production Technologies in Stochastic Continuous Time Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 2831, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Pelloni, Alessandra & Lorenza, Rossi, 2010. "Endogenous Growth, Monetary Shocks and Nominal Rigidities," MPRA Paper 25647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2011. "Long‐Term Growth And Short‐Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 646-672, 06.
    4. Christian Bayer & Klaus Waelde, 2011. "Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of Invariant Distributions in Continuous-Time Stochastic Models," Working Papers 1111, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 21 Jul 2011.
    5. Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "Taxation, risk-taking and growth: a continuous-time stochastic general equilibrium analysis with labor-leisure choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1511-1539, June.
    6. Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2009. "Welfare cost of inflation in a stochastic balanced growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 650-658, May.
    7. Evans, Lynne & Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "FOREX risk premia and policy uncertainty: a recursive utility analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, February.

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