IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/demeco/v84y2018i2p149-187_1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From Empty Pews To Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics

Author

Listed:
  • Berman, Eli
  • Iannaccone, Laurence R.
  • Ragusa, Giuseppe

Abstract

Total fertility in the Catholic countries of Southern Europe has dropped to remarkably low rates (=1.4) despite continuing low rates female labor force participation and high historic fertility. We model three ways in which religion affects the demand for children – through norms, market wages, and childrearing costs. We estimate these effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for 13 European countries from 1960 to 2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962–65). Using nuns per capita as a proxy for service provision, we estimate fertility effects on the order of 300 to 400 children per nun. Moreover, nuns outperform priests as a predictor of fertility, suggesting that changes in childrearing costs dominate changes in theology and norms. Reduced church attendance also predicts fertility decline, but only for Catholics, not for Protestants. Service provision and attendance complement each other, a finding consistent with club models of religion.

Suggested Citation

  • Berman, Eli & Iannaccone, Laurence R. & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2018. "From Empty Pews To Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 149-187, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:demeco:v:84:y:2018:i:2:p:149-187_1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2054089217000220/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sevilla-Sanz, Almudena & De Laat, Joost, 2006. "Working women, men’s home time and lowest-low fertility," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    2. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    3. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bettio, Francesca & Villa, Paola, 1998. "A Mediterranean Perspective on the Breakdown of the Relationship between Participation and Fertility," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(2), pages 137-171, March.
    5. Paola Giuliano, 2007. "Living Arrangements in Western Europe: Does Cultural Origin Matter?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(5), pages 927-952, September.
    6. John Bongaarts, 1999. "Fertility Decline in the Developed World: Where Will It End?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 256-260, May.
    7. Charles Westoff & Elise Jones, 1979. "The end of “Catholic” fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(2), pages 209-217, May.
    8. Gronau, Reuben, 1977. "Leisure, Home Production, and Work-The Theory of the Allocation of Time Revisited," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1099-1123, December.
    9. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    10. Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "The effect of child care and part time opportunities on participation and fertility decisions in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 549-573.
    11. Evelyn Lehrer, 1996. "Religion as a determinant of marital fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 173-196, June.
    12. Eli Berman, 2000. "Sect, Subsidy, and Sacrifice: An Economist's View of Ultra-Orthodox Jews," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 905-953.
    13. Iannaccone, Laurence R, 1992. "Sacrifice and Stigma: Reducing Free-Riding in Cults, Communes, and Other Collectives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 271-291, April.
    14. Ross Stolzenberg & Mary Blair-Loy & Linda J. Waite, "undated". "Religious Participation Over the Early Life Course: Age and Family Life Cycle Effects on Church Membership," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 94-14, Chicago - Population Research Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gihleb, Rania & Giuntella, Osea, 2017. "Nuns and the effects of catholic schools. Evidence from Vatican II," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 191-213.
    2. Oliveira, Livio Luiz Soares de & Neto, Giácomo Balbinotto & Cortes, Renan Xavier, 2012. "Quem vai à igreja? Um teste de regressão logística ordenada do modelo de Azzi-Ehrenberg para o Brasil [Who goes to church: A test of the ordered logistic regression model of Azzi-Ehrenberg to Brazi," MPRA Paper 45092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. David de la Croix & Clara Delavallade, 2018. "Religions, Fertility, And Growth In Southeast Asia," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 907-946, May.
    4. Mayssun El-Attar, 2013. "Trust, child care technology choice and female labor force participation," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 507-544, December.
    5. Sriya Iyer, 2016. "The New Economics of Religion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 395-441, June.
    6. Lehrer, Evelyn L., 2008. "The Role of Religion in Economic and Demographic Behavior in the United States: A Review of the Recent Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 3541, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. de la Croix, David & Perrin, Faustine, 2018. "How far can economic incentives explain the French fertility and education transition?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 221-245.
    8. David de la Croix & Fabio Mariani & Marion Mercier, 2023. "Driven By Institutions, Shaped By Culture: Human Capital And The Secularization Of Marriage In Italy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1777-1818, November.
    9. David de la Croix & Faustine Perrin, 2016. "French Fertility and Education Transition: Rational Choice vs. Cultural Diffusion," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    10. Pelin AKYOL & Çağla ÖKTEN, 2024. "The role of religion in female labor supply: evidence from two Muslim denominations," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 116-153, March.
    11. Maryam Dilmaghani, 2021. "Deep-Level Religious Diversity and Work-Life Balance Satisfaction in Canada," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 315-350, February.
    12. Dierk Herzer, 2019. "A Note on the Effect of Religiosity on Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 991-998, June.
    13. Noury, Abdul G. & Speciale, Biagio, 2016. "Social constraints and women's education: Evidence from Afghanistan under radical religious rule," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 821-841.
    14. Sandra Brée & David de la Croix, 2019. "Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 13(1), pages 25-54, January.
    15. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Jensen, Peter Sandholt, 2019. "Preaching democracy: The second Vatican council and the third wave," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 525-540.
    16. Maryam Dilmaghani, 2019. "Religiosity, Secularity and Fertility in Canada," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 403-428, May.
    17. Lozano, Fernando A., 2012. "What Happened to God's Time? The Evolution of Secularism and Hours of Work in America, Evidence from Religious Holidays," IZA Discussion Papers 6552, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Ryohei Mogi & Albert Esteve & Vegard F. Skirbekk, 2022. "The Decline of Spanish Fertility: The Role of Religion," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1333-1346, December.
    19. Del Boca, Daniela & Locatelli, Marilena, 2006. "The Determinants of Motherhood and Work Status: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2414, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Huber, John D. & Stanig, Piero, 2011. "Church-state separation and redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 828-836.
    21. Akyol, Pelin & Okten, Cagla, 2019. "The Role of Culture on Female Labor Supply: Evidence from Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 12620, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Jan Fałkowski & Przemysław Kurek, 2020. "The transformation of supreme values: Evidence from Poland on salvation through civic engagement," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 113-129, October.
    23. Gitanjali Sen & Mitul Surana & Rakesh Basant, 2023. "To What Extent Does the Fertility Rate Explain the Education Gap?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-31, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eliane El Badaoui & Eleonora Matteazzi, 2014. "To be a Mother, or not to be? Career and Wage Ladder in Italy and the UK," Working Papers hal-04141331, HAL.
    2. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Laurence Iannaccone & Eli Berman, 2006. "Religious extremism: The good, the bad, and the deadly," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 109-129, July.
    4. Alicia Adsera, 2006. "An Economic Analysis of the Gap Between Desired and Actual Fertility: The Case of Spain," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 75-95, March.
    5. Botticini, Maristella & Eckstein, Zvi, 2002. "From Farmers to Merchants: A Human Capital Interpretation of Jewish Economic History," IZA Discussion Papers 670, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Del Boca, Daniela & Pasqua, Silvia & Pronzato, Chiara D., 2004. "Why Are Fertility and Women's Employment Rates So Low in Italy? Lessons from France and the U.K," IZA Discussion Papers 1274, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
    8. Noury, Abdul G. & Speciale, Biagio, 2016. "Social constraints and women's education: Evidence from Afghanistan under radical religious rule," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 821-841.
    9. Sevilla-Sanz, Almudena & De Laat, Joost, 2006. "Working women, men’s home time and lowest-low fertility," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Ronald Rindfuss & David Guilkey & S. Morgan & Øystein Kravdal & Karen Guzzo, 2007. "Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 345-372, May.
    11. Le Wang & Joao Ricardo Faria, 2007. "Employment and Fertility Choice: A Differential Game Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(9), pages 1-8.
    12. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420.
    13. Elisabeta JABA & Ioana-Alexandra CHIRIANU & Christiana Brigitte BALAN & Ioan-Bogdan ROBU & Mihai Daniel ROMAN, 2016. "The Analysis Of The Effect Of Women’S Participation In The Labor Market On Fertility In European Union Countries Using Welfare State Models," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 69-84.
    14. James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote & Ariel Dora Stern, 2008. "Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    15. Stefan Bauernschuster & Timo Hener & Helmut Rainer, 2016. "Children of a (Policy) Revolution: The Introduction of Universal Child Care and Its Effect on Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 975-1005.
    16. García-Manglano, Javier & Nollenberger, Natalia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2014. "Gender, Time-Use, and Fertility Recovery in Industrialized Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8613, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. BOUSSELIN Audrey, 2017. "Childcare, maternal employment and residential location," LISER Working Paper Series 2017-05, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    18. Miranda, Alfonso & Trivedi, Pravin K., 2020. "Econometric Models of Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 13357, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Eschelbach Martina, 2015. "Family Culture and Fertility Outcomes – Evidence from American Siblings," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 246-267, June.
    20. Barbara S. Okun, 2017. "Religiosity and Fertility: Jews in Israel," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 475-507, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:demeco:v:84:y:2018:i:2:p:149-187_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/dem .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.