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Does the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affect current fertility?

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  • Kei SAKATA

    (Australian Gambling Research Center, Australian Insitute of Family Studies)

  • C. R. McKENZIE

    (Faculty of Economics, Keio University)

Abstract

This paper argues that the expectation of having to provide care for aging parents in the future may be a major factor contributing to the current low fertility rate in Japan. Using data from the 1998 and 2008 National Family Research of Japan (NFRJ) surveys and a Poisson-logit hurdle model, this paper examines whether the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affects a couple's current family planning. The first-stage model of a couple's family planning decision is a logit model which examines the decision of whether or not to have any children, and then in the second stage a Poisson model is applied to explain the number of children a couple has conditional on the couple having at least one child. The empirical evidence presented suggests that there are strong generational effects, and that for the post-war cohort, an increase in the probability of having to look after a parent increases the probability of a couple being childless.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei SAKATA & C. R. McKENZIE, 2022. "Does the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affect current fertility?," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 283-211, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:88:y:2022:i:3:p:283-211
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2020.35
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Age care; Fertility; Hurdle model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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