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Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models

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  • Maria Melkersson

    ()
    (SOFI, University of Stockholm, SE 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Dan-Olof Rooth

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Lund, SE 222 07 Lund, Sweden)

Abstract

For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated "extra" probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 189-203

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:13:y:2000:i:2:p:189-203

Note: Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 19 May 1999
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Related research

Keywords: Fertility; inflated count data models;

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00348829 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. George Hondroyiannis, 2009. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty:An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Working Papers 96, Bank of Greece.
  3. Martha Misas A. & Juan Carlos Parra A. & Enrique López E., 2011. "Heterogeneidad en la fijación de precios en Colombia: análisis de sus determinantes a partir de modelos de conteo," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008301, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  4. Booth, Alison L. & Kee, Hiau Joo, 2006. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility Patterns in Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 2437, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Alfonso Miranda, 2008. "Planned fertility and family background: a quantile regression for counts analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 67-81, January.
  6. Bratti, M.; & Miranda, A;, 2010. "Endogenous Treatment Effects for Count Data Models with Sample Selection or Endogenous Participation," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/19, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  7. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00348829 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Löfström, Åsa & Westerberg, Thomas, 2006. "Variations in Fertility - a Consequense of Other Factors Besides Love?," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 681, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  9. Guido Heineck, 2006. "The relationship between religion and fertility: Evidence from Austria," Papers on Economics of Religion 06/01, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  10. Alfonso Miranda, 2013. "A double-hurdle count model for completed fertility data from the developing world," Mexican Stata Users' Group Meetings 2013 13, Stata Users Group.
  11. Llerena, Freddy, 2012. "Determinantes de la fecundidad en el Ecuador
    [Determinants of fertility in Ecuador]
    ," MPRA Paper 39887, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
  12. Echávarri Aguinaga, Rebeca, 2009. "Education and the dynamics of family decisions," DFAEII Working Papers 2009-01, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  13. Alfonso Miranda, 2003. "Socio-economic characteristics, completed fertility, and the transition from low to high order parities in Mexico," Labor and Demography 0308001, EconWPA.

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