IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cpp/issued/v46y2020is3ps236-s260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Condition

Author

Listed:
  • Thibaut Duprey

Abstract

I construct a new composite measure of systemic financial market stress for Canada. Compared with existing measures, it better captures the 1990 housing market correction and more accurately reflects the absence of diversification opportunities during systemic events. The index can be used for monitoring. For instance, during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, it reached a peak second only to the 2008 global financial crisis. The index can also be used to introduce non-linear macro-financial dynamics in empirical macroeconomic models of the Canadian economy. Macroeconomic conditions are shown to deteriorate significantly when the Canadian financial stress index is above its 90th percentile.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibaut Duprey, 2020. "Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Condition," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(S3), pages 236-260, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:46:y:2020:i:s3:p:s236-s260
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.2020-047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2020-047
    Download Restriction: access restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3138/cpp.2020-047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    4. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2012. "Diagnosing the Financial System: Financial Conditions and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 191-239, June.
    5. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2013. "What Is Systemic Risk?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45, pages 121-127, August.
    6. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    7. Chatterjee, Somnath & Chiu, Jeremy & Hacioglu-Hoke, Sinem & Duprey, Thibaut, 2017. "A financial stress index for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 697, Bank of England.
    8. Cameron MacDonald & Virginie Traclet, 2018. "The Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment," Technical Reports 113, Bank of Canada.
    9. Cameron MacDonald & Maarten van Oordt & Robin Scott, 2016. "Implementing Market-Based Indicators to Monitor Vulnerabilities of Financial Institutions," Staff Analytical Notes 16-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    11. Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2020. "Managing GDP Tail Risk," Staff Working Papers 20-3, Bank of Canada.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    13. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    14. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fuchun Li & Pierre St-Amant, 2010. "Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Autumn), pages 9-18.
    16. Rocco Huang & Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2009. "Why Are Canadian Banks More Resilient?," IMF Working Papers 2009/152, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vladyslav Filatov, 2020. "A New Financial Stress Index for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 15-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2022. "International Transmission of Quantitative Easing Policies: Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 22-30, Bank of Canada.
    3. Vladyslav Filatov, 2021. "A New Financial Stress Index for Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 251, pages 37-54.
    4. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2021. "Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19," Staff Working Papers 21-2, Bank of Canada.
    6. Bulusu, Narayan & Guérin, Pierre, 2019. "What drives interbank loans? Evidence from Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 427-444.
    7. Andrew Lee-Poy, 2018. "Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-34, Bank of Canada.
    8. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
    9. Lin Zhu & Jian He, 2024. "China financial stability and asymmetric implications for economic stability," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-29, February.
    10. Thibaut Duprey & Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities," Staff Analytical Notes 17-24, Bank of Canada.
    11. Sha Zhu & Fujun Lai & Jie Deng & Qian Wang, 2021. "Do Mutual Funds’ Exposure to Financial Stress Predict Their Future Returns? Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    12. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
    2. Theshne Kisten, 2019. "A financial stress index for South Africa: A time-varying correlation approach," Working Papers 805, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. Yao, Xiaoyang & Le, Wei & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Financial stress dynamics in China: An interconnectedness perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 217-238.
    4. Fuchun Li & Hongyu Xiao, 2016. "Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach," Staff Working Papers 16-21, Bank of Canada.
    5. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    6. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    7. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    9. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    14. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    15. Barbara Jarmulska, 2022. "Random forest versus logit models: Which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 455-490, April.
    16. Zigraiova, Diana & Jakubik, Petr, 2015. "Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 553-576.
    17. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    18. Arianna Miglietta & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019. "An indicator of macro-financial stress for Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 497, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; financial markets; financial stress index; threshold vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:46:y:2020:i:s3:p:s236-s260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iver Chong (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.utpjournals.press/loi/cpp .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.