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Managing GDP Tail Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Thibaut Duprey
  • Alexander Ueberfeldt

Abstract

We propose a novel framework to analyze how policy-makers can manage risks to the median projection and risks specific to the tail of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. By combining a quantile regression of GDP growth with a vector autoregression, we show that monetary and macroprudential policy shocks can reduce credit growth and thus GDP tail risk. So policymakers concerned about GDP tail risk would choose a tighter policy stance at the expense of macroeconomic stability. Using Canadian data, we show how our framework can add tail event information to projection models that ignore them and give policy-makers a tool to communicate the trade-offs they face.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2020. "Managing GDP Tail Risk," Staff Working Papers 20-3, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Evren Damar & Miguel Molico, 2016. "On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Effectiveness of Macroprudential Tools in Building Resilience and Mitigating Financial Imbalances," Discussion Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    3. repec:ces:ifodic:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:19307486 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stephan Kohns, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(1), pages 17-18, 04.
    5. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Stephan Kohns, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(01), pages 17-18, April.
    7. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Suarez, Javier, 2022. "Growth-at-risk and macroprudential policy design," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    3. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202113 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jorge E. Galán & María Rodríguez Moreno, 2020. "At-risk measures and financial stability," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    5. Martin Gächter & Martin Geiger & Elias Hasler, 2023. "On the Structural Determinants of Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 251-293, June.
    6. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of systemic stress: a rolling spillover index approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 109-140.
    7. Aikman, David & Bluwstein, Kristina & Karmakar, Sudipto, 2021. "A tail of three occasionally-binding constraints: a modelling approach to GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 931, Bank of England.
    8. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Lara Coulier & Selien De Schryder, 2022. "Assessing the Effects of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policy on Credit in the EU Using Intensity-Based Indices," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 22/1044, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Thibaut Duprey, 2020. "Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Condition," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(S3), pages 236-260, October.
    11. Milan Szabo, 2020. "Growth-at-Risk: Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2020/3, Czech National Bank.
    12. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    13. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Economic models; Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies; Interest rates; Monetary Policy; Monetary policy framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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