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Ciclos políticos y ciclos económicos en Colombia: 1950 - 1994

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  • Andrés Escobar Arango

Abstract

“Un capítulo fundamental de la relación sector público-economía se empezó a explorar hace tan sólo dos décadas. Se trata de la dinámica detrás de la formación de la política económica. Si esta última es el resultado de un proceso y no de la determinación por una sola vez de un patrón de acciones gubernamentales sobre la economía, cabe preguntarse: (i) ¿qué hace cambiar de rumbo la política económica? y (ii) ¿por qué cambia en el sentido en que lo hace? La política económica cambia de rumbo porque cambia el "policymaker", fenómeno que inequívocamente se encuentra ligado a fenómenos de tipo político: quien lleva las riendas de la economía es generalmente relevado con cierta periodicidad por medio de mecanismos democráticos. Cuando se produce este relevo se cumple lo que la literatura llama un "ciclo político". Por otra parte, la dirección en que cambia la política económica depende de los intereses del "policymaker". Estos intereses siguen o bien una ideología partidista o bien un deseo de permanecer en el poder. El objetivo de este trabajo es contrastar empíricamente para el caso colombiano las hipótesis formuladas por esta literatura, con el fin de establecer qué tipo de ciclos políticos han estado presentes en la economía nacional durante los últimos sesenta anos. El capítulo 2 desarrolla un marco teórico que distingue en el plano conceptual los diferentes ciclos políticos que ha definido la literatura. El capítulo 3 investiga cuatro instituciones políticas fundamentales en Colombia. El capítulo 4 se concentra en la evolución de las principales variables políticas y macroeconómicas desde 1935. El capítulo 5 contiene los resultados de las estimaciones empíricas realizadas. Finalmente, el capítulo 6 hace una serie de conclusiones.”

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Escobar Arango, 1996. "Ciclos políticos y ciclos económicos en Colombia: 1950 - 1994," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013567
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos Económicos; Ciclos Políticos; Política Económica; Modelos Macroeconómicos; Pensamiento Económico; Partidos Políticos; Política Fiscal; Junta Monetaria; Banco de la República; Política Cafetera; Presidentes; Crecimiento Económico; Informes de Investigación; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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