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Una discusión sobre la conveniencia de construir el metro de Bogotá y sobre las dificultades para financiarlo

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Listed:
  • Israel Fainboim
  • Carlos Jorge Rodríguez

Abstract

“A finales de 1998 el Departamento Nacional de Planeación encargó a Fedesarrollo un estudio para determinar si el Gobierno Nacional estaba en capacidad de cumplir las obligaciones financieras en las que incurrió durante la administración Samper para financiar los Metros de Bogotá y Cali. Como estas obligaciones son de muy largo plazo, para responder a este interrogante fue necesario realizar un estudio de sostenibilidad fiscal. Aplicando varias de las metodologías existentes para examinar la sostenibilidad fiscal, llegamos a la conclusión de que la situación fiscal era insostenible y que en esas circunstancias todo gasto público adicional, de cualquier magnitud, produce efectos macroeconómicos desfavorables. Con este concepto no queríamos sin embargo convertirnos en los "enterradores" del proyecto del Metro para Bogotá, pues creemos que la ciudad cumple las condiciones necesarias para construir un Metro y que con un marco institucional y regulatorio adecuado, el proyecto podría alcanzar la rentabilidad económico-social estimada en los estudios de factibilidad. Las razones anteriores fueron las que nos llevaron a conceptuar que Bogotá debía construir un Metro, pero que el Gobierno Nacional enfrentaría enormes dificultades para cumplir con los compromisos adquiridos para financiarlo. El presente artículo resume esa posición. Este consta de tres capítulos. El primero presenta las razones por las cuales creemos que Bogotá debe construir un metro mencionando algunas condiciones que deben cumplirse para que el proyecto tenga una alta rentabilidad económico social. El segundo capítulo, describe los resultados obtenidos en los ejercicios de sostenibilidad de la política fiscal, e identifica los factores que van a ejercer mayor presión sobre las finanzas públicas colombianas en el mediano y largo plazo; también evalúa el impacto macroeconómico de los desequilibrios fiscales proyectados. el tercer capítulo las conclusiones.”

Suggested Citation

  • Israel Fainboim & Carlos Jorge Rodríguez, 1999. "Una discusión sobre la conveniencia de construir el metro de Bogotá y sobre las dificultades para financiarlo," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013489
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informes de Investigación; Metro; Sistema de Transporte Rápido; Transporte Urbano; Infraestructura del Transporte; Gasto Público; Financiamiento de Proyectos; Financiamiento del Transporte; Parque Automotor; Troncales para Buses; Empresa Transmilenio; Transmilenio; Proyecciones Económicas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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