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Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?

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  • Thomas Krichel
  • Paul Levine
  • Joseph Pearlman

Abstract

The paper examines the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country monetary union. The worst scenario occurs when an independent central bank (CB sets the nominal interest rate and responds to rising government debt/GDP ratios by monetisation. The result is high inflation, high debt/GDP ratios and a large public sector. Government debt and inflation are contained if the governments bear sole responsibility for solvency, but the public sector remains excessively large. The best scenario occurs if the CB removes the incentive for the governments to engineer surprise inflation by credible inflation targeting.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02707901
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.

Volume (Year): 132 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 28-54

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:132:y:1996:i:1:p:28-54

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Related research

Keywords: E52; E62; F15; F33;

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References

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  1. Buiter, Willem H. & Kletzer, Kenneth M., 1991. "The welfare economics of cooperative and noncooperative fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 215-244.
  2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  4. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Levine, Paul & Brociner, Andrew, 1994. "Fiscal policy coordination and EMU : A dynamic game approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 699-729.
  6. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 1993. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521441964.
  7. Levine, Paul & Currie, David, 1987. "Does International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Pay and Is It Sustainable?: A Two Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 38-74, March.
  8. Buiter, Willem H & Patel, U, 1990. "Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finance of India," CEPR Discussion Papers 408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867.
  10. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Fiscal Policies and the World Economy; An Intertemporal Approach (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987)," MPRA Paper 20438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1988. "Optimal Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy with Finite Lifetimes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 411-32, March.
  13. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  14. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  15. Levine, Paul, 1993. "Fiscal Policy Co-ordination under EMU and the Choice of Monetary Instrument," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(0), pages 1-12, Suppl..
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Bovenberg, A. Lans, 1999. "Does monetary unification lead to excessive debt accumulation?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 299-325, December.
  2. Bovenberg, A.L. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J., 1997. "Central Bank independence and public debt policy," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74443, Tilburg University.
  3. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Lans Bovenberg, A., 1997. "Designing fiscal and monetary institutions in a second-best world," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 53-79, February.
  4. Beetsma, Roel M W J & Bovenberg, A Lans, 2000. " Designing Fiscal and Monetary Institutions for a European Monetary Union," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(3-4), pages 247-69, March.
  5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2943 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "Monetary Union without Fiscal Coordination May Discipline Policymakers," DELTA Working Papers 95-22, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  7. Beetsma,Roel M.W.J. & Bovenberg,A. Lans, 1995. "The role of public debt in the game of double chicken," Research Memorandum 025, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  8. Jérôme Creel, 2001. "Faut-il contraindre la politique budgétaire en Union monétaire ?. Les enseignements d'une maquette simulée," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 77(2), pages 199-249.
  9. Fritz Breuss & Andrea Weber, . "Economic Policy Coordination in the EMU. How Much Scope will There be Within the Framework of the Stability and Growth Pact?," WIFO Working Papers 113, WIFO.
  10. Fritz Breuss & Andrea Weber, 1999. "Economic Policy Coordination in the EMU: Implications for the Stability Pact," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 26, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  11. Peter Mooslechner & Martin Schuerz, 1999. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Any Lessons for EMU? A Selective Survey of the Literature," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 171-199, September.
  12. Dor, Eric & Durré, Alain, 1999. "Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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