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Determinantes de la probabilidad de cierre de nuevas empresas en Bogotá

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  • Juan Felipe Parra

Abstract

El artículo analiza los determinantes de la probabilidad de cerrar una firma nueva en el mercado antes de que alcance sus primeros cinco anos de actividades. Se estudian las condiciones macroeconómicas y microeconómicas que experimentaron estas empresas en Bogotá durante su primer lustro. El estudio revela que hay indicios para afirmar que el tamano óptimo de entrada es el de pequena y mediana empresa (PYMEs). Entre los principales hallazgos de la investigación están, en primer lugar, que las empresas más proclives a la quiebra prematura son las microempresas, en segundo lugar, para algunas empresas el endeudamiento moderado puede ser útil para apalancarse, pero el alto endeudamiento, finalmente, se verificó que, tanto el sector económico, como la localidad en la que abre sus puertas la nueva empresa, son determinantes en su probabilidad de cerrar antes de los primeros cinco anos.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Felipe Parra, 2011. "Determinantes de la probabilidad de cierre de nuevas empresas en Bogotá," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000180:011658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    2. Zoltan J. Acs & Catherine Armington & Ting Zhang, 2006. "The Determinants of New-firm Survival across Regional Economies," Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 2007-04, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group.
    3. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
    4. Paloma López-García & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Business demography in Spain: determinants of firm survival," Working Papers 0608, Banco de España.
    5. P. Holmes & A. Hunt & I. Stone, 2010. "An analysis of new firm survival using a hazard function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 185-195.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Walther Reina Gutiérrez & Claudia Inés Sepúlveda Rivillas & Gabriel Jaime González Uribe, 2017. "Análisis semiparametrico de los factores asociados a la sostenibilidad de los emprendimientos," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 26(1), pages 163-180, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Supervivencia de empresas; modelos probit; nuevas empresas; creación de empresas star ups.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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