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The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Dorn
  • Clemens Fuest
  • Marcell Göttert
  • Carla Krolage
  • Stefan Lautenbacher
  • Sebastian Link
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Magnus Reif
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Marc Stöckli
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

According to estimates by the ifo Institute, the economic costs of the partial shutdown of the economy due to the coronavirus epidemic will amount to between EUR 255 and 495 billion for a shutdown period of two months – depending on the scenario used as a basis. The GDP growth rate will fall by between 7.2 and 11.2 percentage points. If the shutdown lasts three months, the costs go up to EUR 354–729 billion. On the labor market, up to 1.8 million jobs subject to social security contributions could be cut and more than 6 million employees could be subject to short-time work.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Stefan Sauer & Marc Stöckli & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuse, 2020. "The Economic Costs of the Coronavirus Shutdown for Germany: A Scenario Calculation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 29-35, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:73:y:2020:i:04:p:29-35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    2. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Radek Šauer &, 2018. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2018: Germany’s Economy Cools Down," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(24), pages 28-82, December.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland [Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(4), pages 272-276, April.
    2. Ruediger Bachmann & Kai Carstensen & Stefan Lautenbacher & Martin Schneider, 2020. "Unsicherheit und Beschäftigungsabbau in der Coronakrise," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(09), May.
    3. Martin Braml & Feodora Teti & Rahel Aichele, 2020. "Pharmacy of the World or at the Mercy of the World Economy? Germany’s Foreign Trade in the Market for Drugs and Medical Equipment," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 35-42, May.
    4. Simon Litsche & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Business Surveys in Focus: Coronavirus Crisis Strikes German Economy with Full Fury," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(05), pages 57-61, May.
    5. Ronny Freier & René Geißler, 2020. "Kommunale Finanzen in der Corona-Krise: Effekte und Reaktionen [Municipal Finances in the Corona Crisis: Effects and Reactions]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(5), pages 356-363, May.
    6. Donsimoni Jean Roch & Wälde Klaus & Glawion René & Plachter Bodo, 2020. "Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 181-216, June.
    7. Fuest, Clemens & Immel, Lea & Neumeier, Florian & Peichl, Andreas, 2023. "Does expert information affect citizens’ attitudes toward Corona policies? Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stöckli & Sebastian Binder & Berit Lange & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Andreas Peichl & Clemens Fuest & Michael Meyer-Hermann, 2020. "Das gemeinsame Interesse von Gesundheit und Wirtschaft: Eine Szenarienrechnung zur Eindämmung der Corona- Pandemie," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(06), May.
    9. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "After the Great Economic Collapse: Germany’s Stimulus Package to Recover the Economy in Times of Covid-19," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(02), pages 38-46, July.
    10. Werner Gleißner & Florian Follert & Frank Daumann & Frank Leibbrand, 2021. "EU’s Ordering of COVID-19 Vaccine Doses: Political Decision-Making under Uncertainty," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-12, February.
    11. Demmelhuber Katrin & Sauer Stefan & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2023. "Beyond the Business Climate: Supplementary Questions in the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(2), pages 169-182, April.
    12. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "After the Big Slump: A Stimulus Package to Support and Recover the Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(07), pages 03-12, July.
    13. Klaus-Dirk Henke, 2020. "Das EU-Budget in der Corona-Krise," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 407-410, June.
    14. Richiardi, Matteo & Bronka, Patryk & Collado, Diego, 2020. "The Covid-19 crisis response helps the poor: the distributional and budgetary consequences of the UK lock-down," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA5/20, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    15. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Business Survey in Focus: German Economy in Coronavirus Shock," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 44-47, April.
    16. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2020. "Coronavirus Pandemic: Effects on Statutory Pension Insurance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 36-43, April.
    17. Ronja Demel & Francesco Grassi & Yasaman Rafiee & Michael R. Waldmann & Annekathrin Schacht, 2022. "How German and Italian Laypeople Reason about Distributive Shortages during COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, September.
    18. Katrin Demmelhuber & Felix Leiss & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Die Auswirkungen der Coronakrise auf die deutsche Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(07), May.
    19. Heinz Gebhardt & Lars-H. Siemers, 2020. "Staatsfinanzen in der Corona-Krise: Günstige Bedingungen sichern Handlungsfähigkeit [The German Public Finances in the COVID-19 Pandemic]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 501-506, July.
    20. Florian Dorn & Janos Gabler & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Andreas Peichl & Tobias Raabe & Klara Röhrl, 2020. "Wenn Menschen (keine) Menschen treffen: Simulation der Auswirkungen von Politikmaßnahmen zur Eindämmung der zweiten Covid-19-Welle," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(15), November.
    21. Angelini, Elena & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Zimic, Srečko & Damjanović, Milan, 2020. "ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2431, European Central Bank.
    22. Johannes Blum & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2020. "Economists Panel: How Do Economists Assess the Economic Policy Responses to the Coronavirus Crisis?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(04), pages 48-51, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Soziale Kosten; Epidemie; Beschäftigungseffekt; Makroökonomie; Wirtschaftlicher Schaden; Deutschland; Shutdown;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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